COVID-19 day 146 : 📈 2,094,069 cases; 115,732 deaths : 14 June 2020
It's not the second wave yet; hospitalizations and cases continue to rise across the US; the challenge of creating vaccines and antivirals (historically, they take years); new Beijing cases top 100
It’s day 146 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. We will pass 8 million global cases on Monday.
Dr. James Hamblin told Brian Stelter that one of the challenges in an ongoing pandemic is the tendency for us (and news organizations) to need dramatic increases or decreases to get our attention.
Also, the current resurgence in national numbers is not a “second wave” of COVID-19. Instead, it shows that the virus continues to expand across the country. To be a “second wave,” we would have needed an extended period with little to no cases. Yet the US has had a seven-day average of around 21,000-22,000 cases for the past week.
📆This past week…
Last week's COVID-19 global news:
New Zealand declared itself free of COVID-19 patients and lifted restrictions. (Monday)
Two research studies published in Nature on Monday detailed the lives saved due to the unprecedented global response to COVID-19. (Monday)
The Supreme Court of Brazil ruled that the president must share coronavirus data with the public. (Tuesday)
Globally, we passed another psychological barrier: more than 7 million cases and more than 400,000 deaths. (Wednesday)
Beijing reported its first domestic case in 55 days; cases continue to grow. (Saturday)
Last week's COVID-19 news in the US:
More than 30,000 nursing home residents have died of COVID-19, which is at least 27% of all reported US deaths. (Monday)
According to the Washington Post, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah have all seen their highest case counts in June. (Tuesday)
Within a state, daily case reports can also vary dramatically. For example, Yakima County, WA (population 251,000) has a per capita reported COVID-19 case rate of 1,964 per 100,000. The case rate for the state of New York is 1,954; the case rate for Washington state, 320; the cast rate for King County, WA (Seattle), 380. (Wednesday)
Since the end of May, cases in Arizona have exploded. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) lifted the state’s stay-at-home order on 15 May. (Thursday)
Cases and hospitalizations are on the rise across the country. (Friday)
Florida’s fired chief data architect has created a competing COVID-19 dashboard which has more information than the state dashboard and reports more deaths and cases. (Friday)
Many public health officials across the country are facing firing and threats. (Saturday)
The California Institution for Men “has one of the largest coronavirus outbreaks among all 35 facilities within the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR).” (Saturday)
Last week's COVID-19 political news:
Most states continue to ignore CDC guidance on reporting COVID-19 cases and deaths, meaning that both case numbers and deaths are underreported. (Monday)
Voting in Georgia’s primary illustrated the challenges of holding a national election during a pandemic. Voting cannot take place “as usual.” (Tuesday)
President Trump will resume campaign rallies in two weeks. (Tuesday)
United Airlines to require passengers complete a health assessment before boarding and to pledge to wear a mask. (Thursday)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that “it's possible that Congress will need to do more in terms of the $600 unemployment insurance.” (Thursday)
In its first public briefing in three months, the CDC released new guidelines on events and gatherings. (Friday)
🦠 Sunday, Johns Hopkins reported 2,094,069 (2,074,526) cases and 115,732 (115,436) deaths, an increase of 0.94% (1.25% ) and 0.26% (0.67%), respectively, since Saturday (Friday). A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.16% and 0.65%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 21,751 (22,143) cases and 741 (788) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 5.53% (5.56%).
Today’s case rate is 632.64 per 100,000; the death rate, 34.96 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 586.81 per 100,000; the death rate, 33.39 per 100,000.
Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.
🔬 Research and medical news
If you are interested in how vaccines and antivirals are developed, this NYT Magazine essay may be just for you:
In the history of medicine, rarely has a vaccine been developed in less than five years. Among the fastest to be developed was the current mumps vaccine…
Antiviral drugs, too, have generally taken decades to develop; effective combinations of them take even longer.
Can a Vaccine for Covid-19 Be Developed in Record Time? NY Times Magainze, 09 June 2020.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Case count; 4, What you can do and resources
⓵ Around the country
This is a Sunday feature; see large versions of the charts on WiredPen.
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona (out of order), Arkansas, California, Florida, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah and Texas have all had record numbers of new cases. Also, see the animated chart, daily COVID-19 deaths compared with average daily deaths by cause.
⓶ Around the world
Until Thursday, Beijing had gone 55 days with no new domestic infections from SARS-COV-2. Then Saturday, six new infections, all related to Xinfadi market, one of the largest in Asia that supplies 90% of Beijing’s fruit and vegetables.
On Sunday, 36 more cases brought the four-day total to 79. The common thread, working or shopping at the market.
Beijing confirmed another 36 new COVID-19 cases Monday morning, the same increase as Sunday.
⓷ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. There is also a lag in reports of cases and deaths making their way into daily results; this lag is visible in predictable declines for both reports containing weekend data.
🌎 14 June
Globally: 7 690 708 cases (137 526 new) with 427 630 deaths (4 281)
The Americas: 3 711 768 cases (73 243 new) with 199 252 deaths (2 812)
US: 2 032 524 cases (22 133 new) with 114 466 deaths (709 new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 7,912,981 (7,786,042)
Total deaths: 433,394 (430,128)
Recovered: 3,777,165 (3,708,328)
🇺🇸 14 June
CDC: 2,063,812 (25,468) cases and 115,271 (646) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 2,094,069 (2,074,526) cases and 115,732 (115,436) deaths
State data*: 2,085,201 (2,064,526) identified cases and 109,607 (109,258) deaths
KS, OR and RI do not report on the weekend; ID and KY do not report on SundayTotal tests (US, Johns Hopkins): 23,535,104 (23,040,304)
Take with a grain of salt. The CDC and at least 11 other states have begun combining tests for active infections with antibody tests, which boosts the total number of tests and drops the percentage who test positive. Tests not people.
View infographic and data online: total cases and cases and deaths/100,000.
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a seafood (“wet”) market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
⓸ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Wear a mask when near non-family members.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)