COVID-19 day 142 : 📈 2,000,464 cases; 112,924 deaths : 10 June 2020
Another psychological threshold crossed: only 43 days from 1 million to 2 million known cases. A numbers edition; case study, Yakima County WA. Researchers: wear your masks!
It’s day 142 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States.
The number of known cases in the United States has crossed 2 million (Johns Hopkins). The number of reported cases reached 1 million on day 99 (28 April). It took only 43 days for the second million.
The COVID Tracking Project report should mark 2 million reported cases on Thursday; the CDC, Friday.
The 3.5 million (WHO) documented cases in the Americas account for about half of the world’s total. The bulk of these, 2.8 million, are in the US and Brazil (the 3rd and 4th most populous nations in the world, respectively).
Nationally, day-to-day reported cases have been relatively flat, hovering around 21K since late May. But on a state basis, or a county basis, the outbreak can appear dramatically different, especially when gross numbers are contextualized. Per capita data help assess the potential impact the virus might have on a community.
One reason daily numbers appear flat is because the heavily populated Northeast has shown a steady decline, as this chart of Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey and New York illustrates. Note that these are per capita case data.
The next three charts reveal a vastly different picture. These 15 states demonstrate varying degrees of increase rates: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Idaho, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Vermont (😢).
Within a state, daily case reports can also vary dramatically.
For example, Yakima County, WA (population 251,000) has a per capita reported COVID-19 case rate of 1,964 per 100,000. The case rate for the state of New York is 1,954; the case rate for Washington state, 320; the cast rate for King County, WA (Seattle), 380.
On 12 May 2020 the World Health Organization recommended that governments reach a positivity rate of 5% or lower for at least 14 days before reopening. The positivity rate is the percentage of positive cases calculated from all test conducted.
The positivity rate in Yakima County is 26.5%. For King County, 7.7%.
“We are a hot spot for COVID-19,” Yakima County health district spokeswoman Lilian Bravo said this week.
Little wonder that effective 03 June, Yakima County citizens should wear masks in any “indoor or outdoor public space where you may be within 6 feet of someone who does not live with you.”
Yakima County is a rural, eastern Washington, agricultural center. The population is 50% white Hispanic/Latino, 43% white non-Hispanic/Latino, and 6.5% native American. Median household income (2018 dollars) is $50,000 with 16.5% of the county living in poverty.
Cases here deviate from the national “average” in gender (more women than men) and in age (most cases are age 20-39). Like Singapore, Yakima County has a transient labor pool, and it’s harvest season.
Based on information from patients who reported their race and ethnicity, Latinos make up a majority of cases with 67%, followed by whites, who account for more than 25%, according to the health district. (AP)
There’s a tale like this in every state. The virus continues to spread and will continue to spread without active precautions.
Wear a mask in public.
Richard Stutt, who co-led a study at Cambridge making news on Wednesday, said “Our analyses support the immediate and universal adoption of face masks by the public.”
[He] said combining widespread mask use with social distancing and some lockdown measures, could be “an acceptable way of managing the pandemic and re-opening economic activity” before the development of an effective vaccine against COVID-19.
🦠Wednesday, Johns Hopkins reported 2,000,464 (1,979,928) cases and 112,924 (112,006) deaths, an increase of 1.06% (0.94%) and 0.83% (0.90%), respectively, since Tuesday (Monday). A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.08% and 1.89%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 21,080 (21,006) cases and 970 (1,078) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 5.64% (5.66%).
Today’s case rate is 604.36 per 100,000; the death rate, 34.12 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 559.37 per 100,000; the death rate, 32.38 per 100,000.
Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Case count; 2, What you can do and resources
⓵ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. There is also a lag in reports of cases and deaths making their way into daily results; this lag is visible in predictable declines for both reports containing weekend data.
🌎 10 June
Globally: 7 145 539 cases (105 621 new) with 408 025 deaths (3 629 new)
The Americas: 3 415 174 cases (48 923 new) with 185 863 deaths (1 913 new)
US: 1 951 096 cases (17 536 new) with 110 770 deaths (550 new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 7,360,239 (7,238,611)
Total deaths: 416,201 (411,277)
Recovered: 3,454,807 (3,371,716)
🇺🇸 10 June
CDC: 1,973,797 (17,376) cases and 112,133 (950) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 2,000,464 (1,979,928) cases and 112,924 (112,006) deaths
State data*: 1,991,613 (1,971,021) identified cases and 106,870 (105,999) deaths
Total tested (US, Johns Hopkins): 21,467,820 (21,048,183)
Take with a grain of salt. The CDC and at least 11 other states have begun combining the number of tests for active infections with the number of antibody tests, which boosts the total number of tests and thus drops the percentage who test positive.
View infographic and data online: total cases and cases and deaths/100,000.
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a seafood (“wet”) market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
⓶ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)
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