COVID-19 day 147 : 📈 2,085,769 cases; 115,644 deaths : 15 June 2020
FDA withdraws authorization for hydroxychloroquine; CDC staff forbidden to talk to VOA reporters; Beijing employs 100,000 trackers; Tulsa OK cases spike past April peak; globally, 8+ million cases
It’s day 147 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. We’ve crossed the 8 million case threshold globally, and the rate of increase has jumped in the past two weeks, perhaps corresponding to the outbreak in South America.
From 17 April (Day 88) to 23 May (Day 124), it took 12 days to add 1 million cases.
We went from 6 million to 7 million in eight days.
We went from 7 million to 8 million in six days.
🦠 Monday, Johns Hopkins reported 2,085,769 (21,957) cases and 115,644 (373) deaths, an increase of 0.95% (0.94%) and 0.34% (0.26%), respectively, since Sunday (Saturday). A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 0.95% and 0.43%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 21,458 (21,751) cases and 702 (741) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 5.49% (5.53%).
Today’s case rate is 638.67 per 100,000; the death rate, 35.8 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 592.41 per 100,000; the death rate, 33.53 per 100,000.
Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.
🤓 Recommended reading (reprise from last week)
Coronavirus survival comes with a $1.1 million, 181-page price tag. Seattle Times, 12 June 2020.
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature. 08 June 2020.
How the world can avoid screwing up the response to Covid-19 again. STAT News, 05 June 2020.
Interpreting Covid-19 Test Results: A Bayesian Approach. Medium, 06 June 2020.
‘Obsessed with staying alive’: Inmates describe a prison’s piecemeal response to a fatal Covid-19 outbreak. STAT News, 12 June 2020.
The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature. 08 June 2020.
The emerging long-term complications of Covid-19, explained. Vox, 12 June 2020.
What’s the deal with masks? Medium, 29 May 2020.
🔬 Research and medical news
The FDA has withdrawn its emergency use authorization for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, citing the potential for “serious side effects.” A reminder that this action came about because of a public push from the White House and that we have sent 2 million units to Brazil (01 June).
Frequently Asked Questions on the Revocation of the Emergency Use Authorization for Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate and Chloroquine Phosphate. FDA, 15 June 2020.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19;
4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources
⓵ Around the country
Five states where case numbers are rising. Note the increase began before the protests.
🌈It’s the 50th anniversary LGBTQ+ Pride celebrations, and volunteers are incorporating that milestone with the Black Lives Matter movement. This is Hollywood Boulevard in LA. A series of surveys conducted since April show that 1-in-9 black Americans were close to someone who has died from COVID-19 compared to the national average of 1-in-20.
❌ More sports professionals test positive, this time in Texas. One of those testing positive, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.
⓶ Around the world
More on the outbreak in Beijing (population 21.54 million). This is what trace-and-test looks like:
Chinese authorities mobilized almost 100,000 community workers to test everyone who has worked in or visited the Xinfadi market in the southwest of Beijing… More than 77,000 people were tested Sunday and 200,000 were expected to be tested Monday, Beijing municipal authorities said.
The US would need to test 3 million people daily to match the rate that Chinese officials are testing in Beijing. For context, the United States (population 330 million) is currently reporting about 500,000 tests per day.
Note that this 500,000 does not represent 500,000 people; it may represent only 330,000 based on analysis of tests-to-people in Florida. From May:
Some states report the total number of people tested, while the CDC reports every test, even if a single person is tested more than once.
⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19
❌ The CDC is actively rejecting media requests from Voice of America, another federal agency that is funded by Congress.
“VOA, a federally-funded independent news organization, strongly rejects the accusations and calls on the CDC to immediately withdraw the instructions,” Bennett said in a June 14 statement.
VOA Director Amanda Bennett and Deputy Director Sandy Sugawara resigned Monday. The Senate confirmed (53-38) Michael Pack, “an ally of Stephen K. Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist,” to run VOA this month. Pack is “under investigation by the D.C. attorney general’s office for financial improprieties.”
❌ Vice President Pence is carrying the propaganda ball for the White House:
Although Covid-19 infections are spiking in states in the South and West, Vice President Pence today told governors to tell people in their states that the rise was due to increased testing, and to “encourage people with the news that we’re safely reopening the country.” In fact, the rise in at least 14 states is higher than that attributable to testing. Oklahoma, where Trump will restart his rallies on June 20, is one of those where cases are rising, although Pence said “The number of cases in Oklahoma is declining precipitously, and we feel very confident going forward.”
🦠 The Administration wants us to travel. U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao, who is married to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), announced the agency is sending cloth facial coverings for passengers to airports (86.8 million) and transit agencies and Amtrak (9.6 million).
▪️ Trump moved his campaign rally in Tulsa, OK (see chart above) from Friday 19 June (Juneteenth) to Saturday. In another departure from the original announcement, the campaign is providing face masks and hand sanitizer to each attendee. This is the first official presidential campaign rally since WHO declared a pandemic in March.
On Monday, the seven-day rolling average of new COVID-19 cases in Tulsa County (population 651,552) was twice the April peak. The county also reported the most cases in a single day, 89, on Monday; the prior single-day record of 82 came Saturday. Case rate: 254/100,000.
The increase isn’t because more people are being tested:
[T]he overall number of tests performed the week of June 7 (29,003) was lower than what was tested in recent weeks — May 24 (33,354) and May 31 (44,219), according to state data.
⓸ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. There is also a lag in reports of cases and deaths making their way into daily results; this lag is visible in predictable declines for both reports containing weekend data.
🌎 15 June
Globally: 7 823 289 cases (132 581) 431 541 deaths (3 911)
The Americas: 3 781 538 cases (69 770) 201 848 deaths (2 596)
US: 2 057 838 cases (25 314 new) with 115 112 deaths (646 new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 8,018,742 (7,912,981)
Total deaths: 436,899 (433,394)
Recovered: 3,844,407 (3,777,165)
🇺🇸 15 June
CDC: 2,085,769 (21,957) cases and 115,644 (373) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 2,114,026 (2,094,069) cases and 116,127 (115,732) deaths
State data*: 2,103,63 (2,085,201) identified cases and 109,983 (109,607) deaths
Total tested (US, Johns Hopkins): 23,984,592 (23,535,104)
Take with a grain of salt. The CDC and at least 11 other states have combined the data for active infections with data for antibodies, which boosts the total number of tests and can drop the percentage who test positive.
📣 View weekly state infographics
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
⓹ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Wear a mask when near non-family members.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)