COVID-19 day 192: 📈 67,619 new cases 1,342 new deaths (US): 30 July 2020
Herman Cain dies from coronavirus; 1.4 million new unemployment claims as federal supplement evaporates; US GDP plummets 33%; women leaders are better at fighting the pandemic
It’s day 192 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. As of Wednesday, at least 150,000 people in the U.S have died from COVID-19. There have been 7,751 deaths in the past seven days, an average of 1,107 deaths per day.
In that virtual briefing, Dr. Harris cautioned: “We are in the first wave. It’s going to be one big wave. It’s going to go up and down a bit. The best thing is to flatten it and turn it into just something lapping at your feet.”
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, One big thing; 2, Key metrics; 3, Recommendations; 4, Politics, economics & COVID;
⓵ One big thing - the U.S. economy
It’s one thing to know, intellectually, that the economy has “contracted” - a verb that does not communicate the intensity of the impact of COVID-19. A more appropriate “c” verb might be cratered.
Now picture this for the world. Oh, wait. Right. Most of the world responded quickly and decisively and is managing the virus at a slow simmer rather than watching an erratic boil from the other side of the kitchen. The global GDP forecast for 2020 is …. wait for it … 2.4%. Not minus 2.4%. Plus 2.4%.
Caution: there is no “thing” that is the economy. There are, instead, people. People who have retired but still buy goods and services. People who work at home. People who work because they perform essential services. People whose health would be at risk if they worked. People who’d like to work but their employer is shuttered.
That last group are the folks most at risk from that orange cliff. Because Mitch McConnell, the Majority Leader of the US Senate, has sat on his hands while federal supplemental unemployment assistance expired.
A total of 1.4 million people filed unemployment claims for the first time last week as businesses given a green light to welcome back customers shut their doors again to slow the spread of COVID-19.
For two weeks in succession, unemployment claims have increased. In less than five months, 54.1 million Americans have filed for unemployment assistance. More than 30 million are currently receiving benefits.
And a rebuttal to the NPR theory below:
Arindrajit Dube @arindube🚨Twitter Research Brief🚨alert: Did the enhanced UI benefits (FPUC) reduce jobs? Using the Census HH Pulse Survey, I compare jobs changes of non-college pop in states where FPUC led to much higher replacement rates for those folks, vs other states. TL;DR: no impact on jobs. 1/
⓶ Key metrics
🦠 Thursday, Johns Hopkins reported 4,494,601 (67,619 new) cases and 152,055 (1,342) deaths, an increase of 1.53% and 0.89%, respectively, since Wednesday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.71% and 0.78%, respectively.
- seven-day average: 65,462 cases and 1,108 deaths
- 3.38% cases leading to death
- case rate, 1,357.87 per 100,000; death rate, 45.94 per 100,000
One week ago
- seven-day average: 67,842 cases and 862 deaths
- 3.57% cases leading to death
- case rate, 1,220.16 per 100,000; death rate, 43.6 per 100,000
Note: the seven-day average is important because dailies vary due to factors other than actual case numbers, particularly over a weekend.
🇺🇸 30 July
CDC: 4,405,932 (65,935 new) cases & 150,283 (1,417) deaths
- One week ago: 3,952,273 (70,106 new) cases & 142,755 (1,078 new) deaths
State data*: 4,468,135 (70,238 new) cases & 144,139 (1,289) deaths
- One week ago: 4,017,735 (70,322 new) cases & 136,477 (1,034 new) deaths
KS reports only M-W-F; CT and RI report only M-F
WHO Situation report, 192
4 323 160 (59 629 new) cases & 148 640 (1 191) deaths
- One week ago: 3 868 453 (62 929 new) cases & 141 479 (1 042 new) deaths
🌎 30 July
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global cases 17,295,538 (266,383 new) cases & 673,171 (6,160) deaths
- One week ago: 15,511,157 (280,596 new) cases & 633,396 (9,953 new) deaths
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is that it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data have suggested that the virus developed elsewhere.
🤓 Recommended reading
I gritted my teeth a lot as I read the first third of this analysis from NPR. National averages tell you damn little! Scroll up and look at that state-by-state chart again. The writer dismisses the wide variation in unemployment benefits from state-to-state. And makes $15 an hour sound like a luxury. But. BUT. The article makes an important point that I’ve not seen get any traction:
And just like that, the coronavirus brought universal basic income into the hands of tens of millions of Americans.
$600 A Week: Poverty Remedy Or Job Slayer? NPR, 27 July 2020
I was not expecting rigorous research.
The performance of these female leaders in the COVID pandemic offers a unique global experiment in national crisis management and has given rise to much media attention. This is a significant shift from the male-dominated view of history within which events are typically considered as determined by the instrumental and causal influence of a small number of ‘Great Men’ (e.g. Keegan 2003). But does this association stand up to systematic scrutiny?
Women leaders are better at fighting the pandemic. World Economic Forum, 28 July 2020.
🔬 Research and medical news
⓸ Politics, economics and COVID-19
R.I.P. Herman Cain, 74, has died after being hospitalized for coronavirus. The former Republican presidential candidate and ex-CEO of Godfather's Pizza attended President Trump’s Tulsa, OK rally last month. He did not practice physical distancing or wear a mask, per his tweet from the event.
Several Trump campaign staff tested positive for COVID-19 both before and after the rally, as did Secret Service members. Cain is the highest profile American to die of the virus.
🦘 Down under, Victoria will make face masks mandatory effective Sunday. According to Premier David Andrews, Australian Defense Force personnel have been deployed to door-knock on homes of people who are supposed to be isolating. Those who were not home “would be referred to Victoria police.” The state reported a record 723 new cases on Thursday.
🏥 This is my vote for the main reason cases continue to mount: only about half of us have significantly thought about, and then acted on, the risk it presents. Margin of error is probably in the 3% +/- range for the primary yes-no answer and significantly greater for the other breakdowns.
🆘 Brazil, which is second to the US in number of global cases, set a daily record of 69,074 new confirmed cases and 1,595 additional deaths on Wednesday. Thursday’s Johns Hopkins report: 2,287,475 cases and 84,082 deaths. Data per 100,000: 1,076 cases and 40 deaths, which slightly trails the US, with 1,220 cases and 44 deaths.
👏🏻 Thank you for your time!
📣 Please spread the word about the newsletter.