COVID-19 day 97: 📈 965,910 cases; 54,876 deaths : 26 April 2020
Globally, 6.9% of those we know have been infected have died and 2-in-3 remain ill; New Yorker compares Seattle and New York responses; no need to continue wiping down groceries
It’s day 97 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. Tomorrow, the number of global cases will top 3 million; the number of cases in the US should top 1 million on Tuesday.
On the global level, there are 2,565,059 cases:
6.9% have died
26.8% have recovered
66.3% are still sick
In the early days of the looming crisis, I was hyper-focused on Seattle and Asia. I didn’t give the east coast much attention until I started writing this on 01 March. As the numbers ratcheted up in New York City, I nodded my head: density, subways, high-rise living.
It never occurred to me that the rapid rise in cases and deaths in New York City could have had anything to do with political squabbling. Nor was I aware of the network of epidemiologists schooled in crisis communication. Or a CDC handbook, Field Epidemiology Manual, “which devotes an entire chapter to communication during a health emergency.”
If you read nothing else this week, read this:
The next day, the man with all the family visitors died. It was America’s first known covid-19 death. Riedo called his wife. “I told her I didn’t know when I would be coming home,” he said to me. “And then I started e-mailing everyone I knew to say we were past containment. It had already escaped.”…
“What can we say today so that people will be ready to hear what we need to say tomorrow?” In e-mails and phone calls, the men began playing a game: What was the most extreme advice they could give that people wouldn’t scoff at? Considering what would likely be happening four days from then, what would they regret not having said? …
The lead spokesperson should be a scientist. Dr. Richard Besser, a former acting C.D.C. director and an E.I.S. alumnus, explained to me, “If you have a politician on the stage, there’s a very real risk that half the nation is going to do the opposite of what they say.”
Yes, it puts my adopted home state of Washington in a good light. As someone who has worked in public policy at the regional level and as county employee, I marvel at how well our leaders have navigated our storied ‘paralysis by analysis’ and moved into, in retrospect, extremely fast action. This New Yorker essay is a #mustRead.
Sunday, Johns Hopkins reported 965,910 (939,235) cases and 54,876 (53,934) deaths in the US, an increase of 2.84% and 1.75%, respectively, since Saturday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 3.7% and 4.3%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 29,459 cases and 2,028 deaths
Today’s case rate is 291.81 per 100,000; the death rate, 165.79 per million.
One week ago, the case rate was 238.03 per 100,000; the death rate, 127.99 per million.
🤓Recommended reading
No need to wipe down groceries or takeout, experts say, but do wash your hands. CNN, 26 April 2020.
Roadmap to Responsibly Re-open America. Paul Romer, NYU professor and co-recipient of the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics Sciences.
🔬Research and medical news
🎦Recommended viewing
If this guy is not an announcer, he should be!
💃🏼Life hack
Physical distancing is going to be the new normal, at least until we have a vaccine. A research report out of China illustrated how infection in a restaurant propagated based on seating and currents from the AC system. That makes this “game” from the Toronto Star a great resource (and discussion starter). (I did not get it right out of the box.)
⓵ Around the country
No state has reported a decline in the number of cases, which implies that no state yet has hit its peak of deaths. Some states have a much slower rate of increase than others, but none are flat. Because New York has attracted media focus, I’ve included it in the chart for the slope (actual cases for NY are 10 times greater).
Should you hear claims from Bakersfield, CA about how the virus is being over-hyped, here is a simple rebuttal of their methodology. (For anyone who runs away from math: I’m sorry it’s being used as a political kludge.)
Although 33 states now report coronavirus data based on patient race and ethnicity, Native Americans are frequently categorized as "Other." Like other people of color, Native Americans have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19, The Guardian reports.
Arizona: Native Americans make up 6% of state population, 16% of COVID-19 deaths.
New Mexico: Native Americans make up 10% of state population, 31% of all COVID-19 cases
All 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have identified COVID-19 cases and all have at least one death.
Please take a moment and answer this short reader survey! ✅
⓶ Around the world
Germany begins lifting its lockdown on Monday. The Guardian interviewed Christian Drosten, who directs the Institute of Virology at the Charité Hospital in Berlin, the German public health institute’s reference lab on coronaviruses.
Singapore continues to see cases escalate for work permit holders who live in dormitories: 886 of the 931 new cases on Sunday were work permit holders. There have been only 12 deaths, to date.
The number of affected countries/territories/areas jumped from 29 at the end of February to 208 today. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a seafood (“wet”) market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data suggest that the virus may have developed elsewhere.
⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19
I’m concerned that for a second weekend, the Wall Street Journal has amplified a non-peer-reviewed research study that has been heavily criticized for sloppy methodology.
In The Bearer of Good Coronavirus News, Stanford professor John Ioannidis, who has found “himself under attack for questioning the prevailing wisdom of lockdowns,” sits down with the editorial board for the Weekend Interview. (Paywalled, but UW’s Carl Bergstrom provides highlights.)
A presidential retweet:
Details on the organizations and people that have been orchestrating the “open my state” movement.
A trio of far-right, pro-gun provocateurs is behind some of the largest Facebook groups calling for anti-quarantine protests around the country, offering the latest illustration that some seemingly organic demonstrations are being engineered by a network of conservative activists.
The Facebook groups target Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York, and they appear to be the work of Ben Dorr, the political director of a group called “Minnesota Gun Rights,” and his siblings, Christopher and Aaron.
The brothers are the founders or directors of or advisers to a string of nonprofit organizations across 12 states that have raised millions of dollars and made enemies of local Republicans and Second Amendment activists. The best-funded Dorr operations are Minnesota Gun Rights, Ohio Gun Owners and Iowa Gun Owners, according to tax filings. They founded a national organization in 2019, American Firearms Coalition, which attacks the NRA as being too soft on gun rights issues.
Idaho: state Rep. Heather Scott called the governor “Little Hitler” and compared stay-at-home orders to the Holocaust.
Michigan: Michigan Conservative Coalition (links to Trump re-election campaign) and Michigan Freedom Fund (links to Betsy Devos)
Minnesota: Facebook groups related to Ben Dorr, the leader of Minnesota Gun Rights, and his brothers, Chris and Aaron
New York: Facebook groups related to Ben Dorr, the leader of Minnesota Gun Rights, and his brothers, Chris and Aaron such as New Yorkers Against Excessive Quarantine
Ohio: Facebook groups related to Ben Dorr, the leader of Minnesota Gun Rights, and his brothers, Chris and Aaron
Oklahoma: Carol Hefner, a co-chair of Trump's 2016 campaign in Oklahoma
Pennsylvania: Facebook groups related to Ben Dorr, the leader of Minnesota Gun Rights, and his brothers, Chris and Aaron such as Pennsylvanians Against Excessive Quarantine
Texas: InfoWars TV (Alex Jones). Earlier this month, FDA told Jones to stop promoting scam coronavirus therapies.
Virginia: Facebook groups Reopen Virginia and Virginians for Medical Freedom (anti-vaccine)
Wisconsin: Facebook groups related to Ben Dorr, the leader of Minnesota Gun Rights, and his brothers, Chris and Aaron, such as Wisconsinites Against Excessive Quarantines
⓸ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. The virus was not created in a lab.
🌎 26 April
Globally: 2 804 796 confirmed (84 900 - new) with 193 710 deaths (6,006 - new)
The Americas: 1 094 846 confirmed (47 338 - new) with 56 063 deaths (2,960 - new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 2,971,639 (2,898,70)
Total deaths: 206,553 (203,043)
Recovered: 868,480 (822,264)
🇺🇸 26 April
CDC: 928,619 (895,766) cases and 52,459 (50,439) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 965,910 (939,235) cases and 54,876 (53,934) deaths
State data*: 959,056 (931,698) identified cases and 49,164 (47,980) deaths
Total tested (US, Johns Hopkins): 5,441,079 (5,184,635)
View infographic and data online: total cases, cases/100,000 and deaths/million.
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
See US (state/territory) total cases, cases/100,000 and deaths/million as infographics.
⓹ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s Daily Memo :: Daily Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
🌐 Global news