COVID-19 day 92 : 📈 825,183 cases; 45,070 deaths : 21 April 2020
The three month anniversary of the first case in Washington state witnessed 39,460 new cases and 2,706 new deaths. This is equivalent to annual death rate of ~290,000 Americans.
It’s day 92 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in both the United States and South Korea, 21 January 2020. The retrospective issue.
“The flu kills people. [Coronavirus] is not Ebola. It’s not SARS. It’s not MERS. It’s not a death sentence. It’s not the same as the Ebola crisis.” Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, 28 February 2020
The first coronavirus death was reported on 29 February in Washington state.
On Tuesday, Santa Clara County, CA, officials reported two earlier deaths which had not previously been identified as from coronavirus. The deaths, on 06 February and 17 February, occurred “when very limited testing was available only through the CDC.” A third death occurred on 06 March; all three died at home.
South Korea only this week returned to daily case counts in the single digits. Should the US case pattern mimic that of South Korea, it could be six weeks or more before our daily case counts are that low. There were 39,460 new cases diagnosed in the United States on Tuesday.
If charts like these do not demonstrate the tragedy that was February and March in the United States, then nothing can.
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Tuesday, Johns Hopkins reported 825,183 (787,901) cases and 45,070 (42,364) deaths in the US, an increase of 4.7% and 6.4%, respectively, since Monday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 4.6% and 10.3%, respectively.
The current case rate is 249.30 per 100,000; the death rate is 136.16 per million.
One week ago, the case rate was 184.11 per 100,000; the death rate, 78.72 per million.
🤓Recommended reading
Act Now to Prevent an American Epidemic. Quarantines, flu vaccines and other steps to take before the Wuhan virus becomes widespread, op-ed by Luciana Borio and Scott Gottlieb, former Trump administration officials. Wall Street Journal, 28 January 2020. No paywall. Note: WHO had not yet named the virus.
Coronavirus timelines: Al Jazeera, Axios, CNN, Just Security, NPR, USA Today
🔬Research and medical news
We Don’t Have Enough Masks. The Atlantic, 30 January 2020.
On 11 February 2020, WHO announced the name for the disease, COVID-19; hosted 400 scientists from around the world, both in person and virtually, to develop a roadmap of action and research; and activated a UN Crisis Management Team.
Maybe you’re tired of me saying window of opportunity, but there is a window of opportunity…. The opportunity was created because of the serious measures China is taken in Wuhan and other cities.
But I don’t think this status can stay the same for long. That’s why we have to use the window of opportunity. If we don’t, we could have far more cases – and far higher costs – on our hands.
No, You Did Not Get COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019. Slate, 10 April 2020.
🎦Recommended viewing
If you missed Saturday’s concert to raise money for WHO and health care workers, yu can jump right to the 2-hour broadcast here. [YT has pulled the link.]
⓵ Around the country
All 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have identified COVID-19 cases and all have at least one death.
⓶ Around the world
On 23 January 2020, “Chinese authorities locked down at least three cities with a combined population of more than 18 million in an unprecedented effort to contain the virus during the busy Lunar New Year travel period.”
Full statement of WHO on 23 January 2020 regarding the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
On 22 January, the members of the Emergency Committee expressed divergent views on whether this event constitutes a PHEIC or not. At that time, the advice was that the event did not constitute a PHEIC, but the Committee members agreed on the urgency of the situation and suggested that the Committee should be reconvened in a matter of days to examine the situation further.
After the announcement of new containment measures in Wuhan on 22 January, the Director-General asked the Emergency Committee to reconvene on 23 January to study the information provided by Chinese authorities about the most recent epidemiological evolution and the risk-management measures taken….
Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.
Several members considered that it is still too early to declare a PHEIC, given its restrictive and binary nature.
Note: the United States holds a seat on that committee.
On 24 January 2020, French officials confirmed the first three cases in Europe.
On 30 January 2020, WHO declared coronavirus a “public health emergency of international concern.”
On 11 March, WHO declared coronavirus a pandemic.
Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly. It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death…
Of the 118,000 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries, and two of those – China and the Republic of Korea - have significantly declining epidemics…
We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic.
If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response, those with a handful of cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission [emphasis added].
The number of affected countries/territories/areas jumped from 29 at the end of February to 208 today. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a seafood (“wet”) market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data suggest that the virus may have developed elsewhere.
⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19
24 January
27 January
We've been monitoring this virus and preparing a response since back in December, but it's more than that. Preparing for these kinds of outbreaks is part of daily life at HHS and for America's public health professionals. ~ Alex Azar, secretary of Health and Human Services and chairman of the coronavirus task force
07 February
28 February
⓸ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. The virus was not created in a lab.
🌎 21 April
Globally: 2 397 216 confirmed (83,006 - new) with 162 956 deaths (5,109 - new)
The Americas: 893 119 confirmed (34,869 - new) with 42 686 deaths (2,071 - new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.30 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 2,565,059 (2,478,634)
Total deaths: 177,496 (170,389)
Recovered: 686,634 (651,736)
🇺🇸 21 April
CDC: 776,093 (746,620) cases and 41,758 (39,083) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 825,183 (787,901) cases and 45,070 (42,364) deaths
State data*: 776,215 (776,215) identified cases and 40,097 (37,570) deaths
Total tested (US, Johns Hopkins): 4,163,464 (4,026,572)
View infographic and data online: total cases, cases/100,000 and deaths/million.
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.30 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
See US (state/territory) total cases, cases/100,000 and deaths/million as infographics.
⓹ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
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🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
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