COVID-19 day 265: 📈 Trump ad quotes Fauci out of context and without OK on COVID-19 response : 11 October 2020

We have 37.4 million cases globally, 1.1 million deaths; US cases are spiking again, this time the mid-west is the center; Trump's behavior is 'manic' and 'deranged'

Sunday was day 265 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. We experienced a month’s worth of news in a week (President Trump’s diagnosis and campaign). Consider this a sequel.

On Sunday, Johns Hopkins reported 37.4 million cases globally, with 1.1 million deaths. Cases are rising again in parts of Europe. India’s cases are growing rapidly; it tails the US in the number two position in total cases (but not per capita).

Sunday’s seven-day average in the US was 48,796 daily cases; there were 57,420 new cases reported on Friday, the most since 14 August. The seven-day average for deaths has been around 700 all month. CNN shows 28 states have growing case numbers.

At our current pace, we will pass 8 million cases by 17 October and could easily reach 300,000 deaths before the new year.

Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, One big thing; 2, Recommendations; 3, Politics, economics & COVID; 4, Key metrics;
5, Resources

⓵ One big thing - Trump, DC & the coronavirus

The Trump campaign released an ad on Saturday that featured a remark from Dr. Anthony Fauci that he said had been taken out of context and was used without his permission. In the context of this ad, “anybody” (above) would be logically interpreted to be Trump.

“In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate. The comments attributed to me without my permission in the GOP campaign ad were taken out of context from a broad statement I made months ago about the efforts of federal public health officials,” Fauci said in a statement provided exclusively to CNN when asked if he agreed to be featured in the ad.

That’s not the only disinformation this weekend. [Cornell study claims Trump is the single largest driver of coronavirus misinformation] On Sunday, Twitter flagged Trump’s claim that he is immune and cannot spread the disease.

The White House has not released a negative test result. Not only are there reports of patients getting reinfected, in moderate to severe cases of COVID-19, the CDC recommends isolation for up to 20 days.

Trump withdrew from this week’s town hall-style debate with Joe Biden because it would be virtual. His campaign manager (who is infected) asserted that “President Trump will have posted multiple negative tests prior to the debate.” No Trump doctor has issued a negative test result. Ever.

Moreover, as of Saturday, no White House spokesperson has answered the question, “When did Trump last test negative for COVID-19?”

Why the answer sheds light on whether Trump was contagious during the debate with Joe Biden as well as during his travels prior to his public coronavirus diagnosis. 

  • It appears unlikely that Trump has been regularly tested for COVID-19. This makes it likely that Trump lied by omission to the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) before the first debate. Both campaigns agreed that everyone in the audience would be tested before the debate. Chris Wallace said that Trump and entourage did not arrive in Cleveland soon enough to be tested. “Yeah, there was an honor system when it came to people that came into the hall from the two campaigns.”

  • The non-partisan CPD has sponsored more than 30 presidential and vice-presidential debates since 1988. It has three co-chairs: Dorothy Ridings, former president of the League of Women Voters of the United States; Frank Fahrenkopf, Jr., former chair of the Republican National Committee; and Kenneth Wollack, former president of the National Democratic Institute.

How serious was Trump’s diagnosis?

  • We know no more than we did last week. Medical professionals and researchers who have worked extensively with COVID-19 continue to point out that the reported treatment suggests a severe case but White House doctors continue to present it as minor in public statements and by releasing Trump so quickly.

On Saturday, USA Today published an analysis from Dr. Ezekiel J. Emanuel, University of Pennsylvania, and Dr. Vin Gupta, University of Washington:

What we do know of the president’s current condition is informed by what has been shared voluntarily and bolstered by what’s been willfully withheld from public view. Concerningly, Trump was reportedly hypoxemic (low oxygen saturations, less than 94%) for a period of time, had shortness of breath, and required supplemental oxygen. Those are all clear signals that the president might have experienced the most feared and harmful injury from COVID-19: pneumonia (emphasis added)…

(As a useful barometer of prior presidential health disclosures, you can readily read up on the details of former President George W. Bush’s colonoscopy or President Barack Obama’s prostate exam.)

Between 2-14 days after exposureCOVID-19 patients may exhibit a variety of symptoms, which can include coughs, chills, diarrhea, difficulty breathing, fatigue, fever, nausea and the loss of the sense of smell or taste.

One of the common early symptoms among elderly Covid patients is a drop in mental acuity or periods of mild confusion…

Trump has sounded hoarse and coughed on his phone-ins to FOX and other conservative media, according to reports. Dr. Bandy Lee, assistant clinical professor of psychiatry at Yale, said Trump has “seemed disinhibited and irrational” since his diagnosis.

His rantings have been described as manic, deranged, crazy-talk:

  • Friday on the Rush Limbaugh show, he threatened to start a war with Iran “if [they] fuck around with us…” He also continued his efforts to sow distrust about election results by claiming that “everybody likes to vote three times” in California.

  • Thursday, in a phone call to Fox Business, Trump called on AG Barr to indict Joe Biden. “Unless Bill Barr indicts these people for crimes, the greatest political crime in the history of our country, then we’re going to get little satisfaction,” Mr. Trump said, referring to the investigation into his 2016 campaign ties with Russia. “But these people should be indicted. This was the greatest political crime in the history of our country, and that includes Obama and it includes Biden.”

  • Trump had proposed that when he was discharged from Walter Reed on Monday that he would appear “frail.” Then he would rip off his dress shirt to reveal a Superman t-shirt underneath.

Status of Trump White House

  • Dr. Fauci has called the 26 September Rose Garden party a super-spreader event. “The data speak for themselves.”

  • The current tally of known coronavirus cases in the White House or linked to the 26 September event: 37 infections. It includes Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany (and others in the press office); Stephen Miller, President Trump’s senior policy adviser and speechwriter; four White House reporters; and housekeeping staff.

  • Adm. Charles Ray, second-in-command in the Coast Guard, has tested positive for COVID-19. As a result, last Monday all members of the joint chiefs of staff except Gen. David Berger, the Marine Corps commandant who was not at the meeting which Ray attended, are in 14-day quarantine. General Thomas, the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, tested positive on Wednesday.

Trump’s behavior shapes behavior for a sizable share of the US population. Dr. Esther Choo, Oregon Health & Science University:

What do people think when the president, during his hospitalization, takes a joy ride around the hospital, putting the people in the car at direct risk? What does it say when he comes out of the hospital with active COVID—like, actively infectious—and the first thing he does at the steps of the White House terrace is rip off his mask? And what does it mean for millions of lives out there when he says it's not a big deal, don't let it dominate your life? Seeing all those things, I felt very discouraged...we've all been working so hard to try to get these simple messages out there. He can destroy that work in a moment or two.

Share ⚡️COVID-19 Memo from a News Hound

⓶ Recommendations

🤓 Recommended reading

If you read no other long form essay on COVID-19 this week, please read this. Ping me for a PDF if you have no other way to read it. Those of us on estrogen blockers have empathy but this is far beyond what I would call brain fog. And it is a reminder of how little we know about the long-term impacts of this virus.

‘I Feel Like I Have Dementia’: Brain Fog Plagues Covid Survivors. NY Times, 10 October 2020.

🔬 Research and medical news

Emerging evidence shows neural spread of the novel coronavirus. Delirium, encephalopathy, olfactory disturbances, acute behavioral changes, headache and cerebrovascular accidents are its common neuropsychiatric complications. These are directly related to increase in peripheral immunological markers, severity of infection and case fatality rate.

Neuropsychiatric manifestations of COVID-19 and possible pathogenic mechanisms: Insights from other coronaviruses. Asian Journal of Psychiatry, 2020 December.

⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19

❌ Minnesota is having a surge of infections (1,390 new cases on Friday). The Deluth News Tribune reported Friday that nine cases have been associated with Trump’s rally in Bemidki on 18 September. Two of those nine are in the hospital, with one in ICU.

🦠 In Wisconsin, officials are building a field hospital in a state park (3,164 new cases on Friday).

📣 The ADL Center for Technology and Society analyzed 2.7 million tweets after Trump tweeted that he and Melania had tested positive. “[I]n the 12 hours following the tweet, the rate of language linked to anti-Asian hostility in this subset of conversations rose by approximately 85 percent.” 

🆘 Several French cities are being moved to the highest alert level. Lyon, Lille, Grenoble and Saint-Etienne went on maximum coronavirus alert level Saturday.

‼️ A new “Koch-aligned pseudo science group” called the “Great Barrington Declaration” is pushing ‘herd immunity’. The group is embedded “in a Koch-funded network that denies climate science while investing in polluting fossil fuel industries.” The signatories include “Dr Johnny Bananas” and “Professor Cominic Dummings”.

Others listed include a resident at the “university of your mum” and another supposed specialist whose name was the first verse of the Macarena.

Sky News discovered 18 self-declared homeopaths in the list of expert names and more than 100 therapists whose expertise included massage, hypnotherapy and Mongolian khoomii singing.

⓸ Key metrics

🦠 Friday, Johns Hopkins reported 7,663,293 (57,420 new) cases and 213,752 (990 new) deaths, an increase of 0.75% and 0.47%, respectively, since Thursday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by  0.75% and 0.44%, respectively.

  • Friday
    - cases 🔺21% compared to seven-day average; deaths 🔺37%
    - seven-day average: 47,299 cases and 722 deaths 
    - 2.79% cases leading to death
    - case rate, 231.5 per 10,000; death rate, 6.5 per 10,000

  • One week ago
    - cases 🔺27% compared to seven-day average; deaths 🔺28%
    - seven-day average: 42,784 cases and 706 deaths 
    -2.85.% cases leading to death
    - case rate, 221.5 per 10,000; death rate, 6.3 per 10,000

Note: the seven-day average is important because dailies vary due to factors other than actual case numbers, particularly over a weekend.

🇺🇸 09 October (Friday)

  • CDC: 7,528,313 (54,887 new) cases & 211,132 (979 new) deaths
    One week ago: 7,213,419 (206,402 new) cases & 47,046 (900 new) deaths

  • State data*:  7,569,132 (57,198 new) cases & 204,597 (890 new) deaths
    One week ago: 7,295,626 (49,190 new) cases & 200,638 (862 new) deaths
    KS reports only M-W-F; CT and RI report only M-F

  • WHO: 7,471,688 (210,338 new) cases & 52,458 (888 new) deaths
    One week ago: 7,077,015 (203,875 new) cases & 32,688 (255 new) deaths

🌎 09 October 

Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)

  • Global: 36,823,012 (377,945 new) cases & 1,067,234 (6,321 new) deaths
    One week ago: 34,503,125 (297,370 new) cases & 1,026,756 (4,993 new) deaths

* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands

The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is that it was not released intentionallyAlthough early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data have suggested that the virusdeveloped elsewhere.

⓹ Resources

📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: USWorld
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)

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