COVID-19 day 173: 📈 3,245,925 (61,352 new) cases and 134,777 (685 new) deaths: 11 July 2020
Tax day in the US is now Wednesday 15 July, and the IRS says it's not extending the deadline; the US case rate is now 98.1 per 10,000; how to pick a COVID-19 data source
It’s day 173 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. This is a light (and late!) edition.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, One big thing; 2, Key metrics; 3, Recommendations; 4, Politics, economics & COVID, 5, Case counts and resources
⓵ One big thing: whose numbers?
Because there is no single source of COVID-19 reported cases and deaths that is both official and timely (the CDC report lags state public reports by a couple of days; WHO lags the CDC), news organizations created their own systems. After Johns Hopkins did it first.
All sources are not created equal because (a) institutional credibility and (b) data transparency. The most transparent data source is the COVID Tracking Project by The Atlantic. You can view their screen caps of state department websites to see where their data originate (and when the current charts haven’t been updated). Here is Florida’s historical data, for example.
When I started this on 01 March, there was no single source of data. I looked at each state health department site every night. Granted, there were only 10 states at first. Now I check state sites only when COVID Tracking project hasn’t been updated for the Pacific time zone or something in the data looks amiss.
Pick one source and use it for all comparisons
Time zones (end of day) affect “daily” numbers
Don’t get jerked around by absolute numbers in headlines
Worry about trends, not individual dailies
National Geographic has created an excellent US map by county showing where cases are increasing, decreasing or holding steady. Their quick view charts have more detail than those at their data source, the NY Times. This makes them a good source if you don’t like the NYT.
This chart is from 10 am Sunday, Pacific time.
Note that Johns Hopkins reported 66,627 cases on Friday and 61,352 cases on Saturday (11 pm Pacific). Time zones matter.
Here’s my USA cases chart on Flourish which uses data from state health departments. States reported 66,624 cases on Friday; 64,068 on Saturday.
And here’s the seven-day average using Johns Hopkins data. Johns Hopkins reported 66,627 cases on Friday; 61,352 cases on Saturday.
Our World in Data is another excellent resource for analysis and create-your-own charts for global data. Their data source: the European CDC. This is a time-lapse view of US cases, paused on 06 June.
⓶ Key metrics
🦠 Saturday, Johns Hopkins reported 3,245,925 (61,352 new) cases and 134,777 (685 new) deaths, an increase of 1.93% and 0.51%, respectively, since Friday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.62% and 0.19%, respectively.
Today
- seven-day average: 56,472 cases and 668 deaths
- 4.15% cases leading to death
- case rate, 980.63 per 100,000; death rate, 40.72 per 100,000One week ago
- seven-day average: 46,485 cases and 580 deaths
- 4.57% cases leading to death
- case rate, 857.83 per 100,000; death rate, 39.18 per 100,000
Note: the seven-day average is important because dailies vary due to factors other than actual case numbers, particularly over a weekend.
⓷ Recommendations
🤓 Recommended reading
Should we should focus on treating people who are already sick with COVID-19 or should be focus on preventing infections in high risk occupations: health care workers and first responders, for example?
The antibodies in plasma can be concentrated and delivered to patients through a type of drug called immune globulin, or IG, which can be given through either an IV drip or a shot. IG shots have for decades been used to prevent an array of diseases; the IG shot that prevents hepatitis A was first licensed in 1944. They are available to treat patients who have recently been exposed to hepatitis B, tetanus, varicella and rabies.
Yet for the coronavirus, manufacturers are only developing an intravenous solution of IG.
A plasma shot could prevent coronavirus. But feds and makers won’t act, scientists say. LA Times, 10 July 2020.
⓸ Politics, economics and COVID-19
‼️ Countdown to Wednesday in the United States
The Internal Revenue service moved the annual 15 April tax deadline this year 15 July because of COVID-19. Last month, the IRS said that they would not issue another filing delay.
🎡 I’ve not tried to track these closures, but I find it hard to believe that Washington is the only place where the state fair has been canceled. Let me know if yours has been canceled, OK? I can start a tracker.
🦠 Red-letter day: President Trump wore a mask in public for the first time on Saturday (reminder, it’s day 173) when visiting Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.
CDC, Johns Hopkins, states, WHO
🇺🇸 11 July
CDC: 3,173,212 (66,281 new) cases and 133,666 (811 new) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 3,245,925 (61,352 new) cases and 134,777 (685 new) deaths
State data*: 3,232,052 (64,068 new) cases and 127,207 (763 new) deaths
KS reports only M-W-F; RI reports only M-F; no update from CTWHO Situation report, 173
3 097 300 cases (58 975 new) with 132 683 deaths (799 new)
🌎 11 July
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global cases: 12,717,908 (219,441 new)
Total deaths: 565,138 (4,929 new)
Global: 12 322 395 cases (219 983) 556 335 deaths (5 286)
The Americas: 6 397 230 cases (132 520) 279 857 deaths (3 487)
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)