COVID-19 day 172: 📈 3,184,573 (66,627 new) cases and 134,092 (802 new) deaths : 10 July 2020

In one month, combined 7-day average deaths in AZ, CA, FL, SC and TX have doubled while the rest of the country dropped almost 50%; Dr. Fauci has not briefed Trump in two months

It’s day 172 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. From these quotes, it looks as though we have learned very little. And yes, 66,627 is yet another new record for reported cases. 

On 05 March, while NY Mayor Bill de Blasio was reassuring New Yorkers, Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee (D) was working with King County businesses to shift to telework ASAP.

Due to lax concern at the White House, US focus was on keeping people who had visited China from landing here. Kinda. Sorta.

Yet NY's three airports (111.9 passengers/year) kept flying people from Europe. Untested. Unchecked.

There is no excuse for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to act as though the world was normal 3.5 months later. None. Zero. никто. нуль. Zilch.

Especially given this quote from 01 May 2020:

“pretty much every scientific and medical report shows that whenever you have a reopening—whether you want to call it a reopening of businesses or of just a reopening of society—in the aftermath of something like this, it actually will lead to an increase and spread. It’s almost ipso facto.”

Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, One big thing; 2, Key metrics; 3, Recommendations; 4, Politics, economics & COVID, 5, Case counts and resources

⓵ One big thing: deaths

Between June 10 and July 10, the combined seven-day rolling average of deaths from Arizona, California, Florida, South Carolina and Texas has almost doubled. The rest of the country exhibited an almost 50% drop. These are raw data.

Where did that rise come from? Hospitalizations, which in turn come from a dramatic spike in cases per capita.

Friday’s report: 51,000 Americans hospitalized with COVID-19. At the peak of the outbreak in the Northeast in April, about 60,000 Americans were hospitalized. States with most hospitalizations (raw data, not per capita): Texas, 10,002; California, 7,896; Florida, 6,974; Arizona, 3,432; and Georgia, 2,443.

That spike in deaths shows up in this make-your-own chart from the Financial Times (shows per capita deaths, log scale) where the US has reversed its downward trend in deaths. The chart shows three countries rising (Brazil, US, Iran) and three declining (the UK, Spain and Japan). Remember, these are per capita data.

⓶ Key metrics

🦠 Friday, Johns Hopkins reported 3,184,573 (66,627 new) cases and 134,092 (802 new) deaths, an increase of 2.14% and 0.60% since Thursday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.98% and 0.54%, respectively.

• The seven-day average: 55,587 ⬆️ (53,933 ) cases and 669 ⬆️ (654) deaths 

• Percent of cases leading to death: 4.21% ⬇️(4.27%).

• Today’s case rate is 962.1 per 100,000; the death rate, 40.51 per 100,000.

• One week ago, the case rate was 844.15 per 100,000; the death rate, 3.91 per 100,000.

Note: the seven-day average is important because dailies vary due to factors other than actual case numbers, particularly over a weekend.

A record number of states have reported more than 1,000 cases:

11,433 FL 9,765 TX 7,798 CA 4,484 GA 4,221 AZ

2,642 LA 1,982 NC 1,955 TN 1,728 SC 1,525 OH

1,334 AL 1,327 IL 1,031 MS 1,009 PA 1,004 NV

⓷ Recommendations

🤓 Recommended reading

The Financial Times story is free with registration. Read the Twitter thread there or on Threadreader.

John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch

1) Months into an airborne disease epidemic that has already killed tens of thousands, only 36% of Brits are wearing masks in public spaces. Far lower than vast majority of peer countries, including all of Asia, most of Europe, & US. Only Nordics & Aus are even more mask-averse

⓸ Politics, economics and COVID-19

Hannah Kuchler @hannahkuchler

I had lunch with Anthony Fauci, who warned about Covid-19's "exponential" curve in surging states, his new role as being "a symbol of someone who tells the truth" and how he has not briefed President Trump in a couple of months.

ft.comSubscribe to read | Financial TimesNews, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

CDC, Johns Hopkins, states, WHO

🇺🇸 10 July 

• CDC: 3,106,931 (59,260 new) cases and 132,855 (799 new) deaths

• Johns Hopkins*: 3,184,573 (66,627 new) cases and 134,092 (802 new) deaths

• State data*:  3,167,984 (66,624 new) cases and 126,444 (853 new) deaths
  KS reports only M-W-F; RI reports only M-F; no updates from

• WHO Situation report, 172
  3 038 3255 cases (64 630 new) with 131 884 deaths (991 new)

🌎 10 July 

Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)

• Global cases: 12,498,467 (229,949 new)

• Total deaths: 560,209 (5,285 new)

WHO Situation report, 172

• Global: 12 102 328 cases (228 102 new) with 551 046 deaths (5 565 new)

• The Americas: 6 264 626 cases (138 824 new) with 276 370 deaths (3 764 new)

* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands

The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.

Resources

👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)

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