COVID-19 day 171: 📈 3,117,946 (63,247) cases and 133,290 (990) deaths : 09 July 2020
One big thing: the fight over opening K-12 schools next month. In NC, state law mandates in-person for the first week. FL governor compares K-12 to Home Depot. UT governor requires masks.
It’s day 171 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. And I’m making a major change in the format of the newsletter for the second time since 01 March. As always, please let me know what you think (comment on this post, talk to me on Twitter, send me email).
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, One big thing; 2, Key metrics; 3, Recommendations; 4, Politics, economics & COVID, 5, Case counts and resources
⓵ One big thing: K-12 schools
From the White House to some states, GOP leaders are pushing hard for K-12 schools as well as public colleges and universities to operate in the fall as though life were normal.
What’s at stake: the lives, near- and long-term, for 56.6 million K-12 students as well as their teachers and cadre of supporting adults that make K-12 happen every day.
Though epidemiologists agree that children generally dodge the worst of covid-19, the emergence of a rare but dangerous “multisystem inflammatory syndrome” in children has been linked to the virus.
Is it rare because students have not been seated on top of one another, maskless, indoors for six-eight hours a day?
“If we open up the schools and haven’t really figured out how to control the virus adequately, it’s not going to be that different from opening up the bars and restaurants, and the problem we’ve seen in the Sun Belt right now,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University who has studied the spread of the virus throughout the pandemic.
Certainly, distance learning presented challenges in the spring, from the fact that not all children have a computer at home to the very real need for school-supplied breakfasts and lunches. But rather than plan for how to make the spring emergency response a non-emergency response in the fall, political leaders seem to be holding the the education apple as symbol of normalcy. A normalcy that is, more than likely, nevermore.
For example Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran has ordered public schools to reopen in August. Today, Gov. Rick DeSantis (R) compared going to school with shopping at WalMart or Home Depot.
I'm confident, if you can do Home Depot, if you can do Walmart, if you can do these things, we absolutely can do the schools. Gov. Rick DeSantis
DeSantis, 41, got the expected Twitter treatment.
As the Tampa Bay Times notes, school district decisions are overseen by local school boards. And Florida is a national coronavirus hot spot.
Fairfax County, Virginia, is offering parents one-two days a week in-person classes or four days a week of online learning. They have to decide by 15 July.
Los Angeles County school districts (1.5 million children) must have a plan for 100% distance learning due to the current rise in cases.
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (R) signed a liability law on Wednesday which “will keep people exposed to COVID-19 at a school or school facility from being able to sue for damages unless they can prove the high legal standard of ‘grossly negligent or wanton or reckless misconduct’.” Edwards is 53.
Texas may have no high school football.
“That first week of school will be in-person instruction,” according to North Carolina Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger (R). It is unclear if the school districts that had planned hybrid classes will be able to do so when schools re-open next month. “I think kids ought to be going back to school, regular schedule,” Berger said. He is 67.
The Reno, Nevada, school board has approved a hybrid model for high schools (students attend in-person five days for each two week period).
Utah Gov. Gary Herbert (R) is requiring masks for anyone setting foot inside a school building or school bus. At least one school district has told teachers they must “return to the classroom ‘in person and on-site’ — or take a year off without pay.” Herbert is 73.
It’s mid-July and schools will begin opening doors - virtual or not - next month. That school district plans remain up in the air is a testament to the human desire to believe tomorrow will be a better day.
The American Academy of Pediatrics has called for opening schools followed by a a long list of caveats that includes things like having desks 3-6 feet apart (CDC calls for 6 feet), face coverings (good luck with that) and “[utilizing] outdoor spaces when possible” for elementary and middle school. High school examples: eliminate lockers, and rotate teachers not students. Throughout K-12: cohorts, cohorts, cohorts.
[O]ther strategies to increase adult-adult physical distance in time and space should be implemented, such as staggered drop-offs and pickups, and drop-offs and pickups outside when weather allows. Parents should, in general, be discouraged from entering the school building. Physical barriers, such as plexiglass, should be considered in reception areas and employee workspaces where the environment does not accommodate physical distancing, and congregating in shared spaces, such as staff lounge areas, should be discouraged.
Timely. Costly. And in the case of cohorts to maintain physical distancing, attending school one or two days a week (if lucky).
⓶ Key metrics
🦠 Thursday, Johns Hopkins reported 3,117,946 (63,247 new) cases and 133,290 (990 new) deaths, an increase of 2.07% and 0.75%, respectively, since Wednesday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.99% and 0.53%, respectively.
The seven-day average:
63,247 (58,601 yesterday) cases and 654 (611 yesterday) deathsPercent of cases leading to death: 4.27% (4.33% yesterday)
Today’s case rate is 941.97 per 100,000; the death rate, 40.27 per 100,000
One week ago, the case rate was 827.75 per 100,000; the death rate, 38.89 per 100,000
Note: the seven-day average is important because dailies vary due to factors other than actual case numbers, particularly over a weekend.
⓷ Recommendations
🤓 Recommended reading
Step one: stop before you share.
How to inoculate yourself against rumors about coronavirus — or any subject. Seattle Times, 05 July 2020.
🔬 Research and medical news
How is COVID-19 spread? Through large droplets (which don’t linger) or small ones (which do)? WHO has argued for the former; more than 200 scientists have published an open letter asking WHO to reconsider. Why you should care.
Aerosols are a bigger coronavirus threat than WHO guidelines suggest – here’s what you need to know. The Conversation, 09 July 2020.
⓸ Politics, economics and COVID-19
In Africa, COVID19 has killed more people than “Ebola did in its deadliest outbreak from 2014 to 2016 in West Africa.” South Africa has become a global hot spot.
The Bolivian president has tested positive.
The British government is trying to bribe people out of their homes by giving diners up to £10 ($12.57) off their restaurant bills in a new “Eat Out to Help Out” plan.
⓹ Case counts
CDC, Johns Hopkins, states, WHO
🇺🇸 09 July
CDC: 3,047,671 (64,771 new) cases and 132,056 (991 new) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 3,117,946 (63,247 new) cases and 133,290 (990 new) deaths
State data*: 3,101,360 (58,103 new) identified cases and 125,591 (862 new) deaths
KS reports only M-W-F; RI reports only M-F; no updates fromWHO Situation report, 171
2 973 695 cases (50 263 new) with 130 893 deaths (930 new)
🌎 09 July
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global cases: 12,268,518 (227,038 new)
Total deaths: 554,924 (5,456 new)
Global: 11 874 226 cases (204 967 new) with 545 481 deaths (5 575 new)
The Americas: 6 125 802 cases (121 117 new) with 272 606 deaths (3 778 new)
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)