COVID-19 day 164: 📈 2,739,879 cases; 128,740 deaths : 02 July 2020
Tokyo reports 107 new cases, and people worry about a new state of emergency. Meanwhile the US reports 53,399 new cases, and governors and the president refuse to mandate masks.
It’s day 164 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. We’re approaching a three-day holiday weekend; reported numbers of positive tests will go down but that doesn’t mean this outbreak is under control.
A reminder that there is no official “daily case count.” My advice, pick a source and stick with it. Johns Hopkins is out in front and has their own methodology; COVID Tracking project pulls from state reports and lags Johns Hopkins. At one time, the CDC got its data from the White House task force; it lags the other two. Today the CDC reported the larger new case number (54,357) of the three. This is why seven-day averages are good. :-)
For the past week, it seems like every day has been marked by a new record somewhere, a testament to governors allowing physical proximity before infection rates fell to recommended levels coupled with their refusing to mandate masks. See the EU, population 446 million, versus the US, population 329 million, for what happens when governments follow both of those guidelines (above chart).
US v Japan: guess who’s winning this war?
🦠 Thursday, Johns Hopkins reported 2,739,879 (2,686,480) cases and 128,740 (128,062) deaths, an increase of 1.99% (1.98%) and 0.53% (0.51%), respectively, since Wednesday (Tuesday). A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.72% and 1.99%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 44,815 ⬆️ (42,432) cases and 678 ⬆️ (652) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 4.70% ⬇️ (4.77%)
Today’s case rate is 811.55 per 100,000; the death rate, 38.69 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 731.81 per 100,000; the death rate, 37.59 per 100,000.
Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.
🤓 Recommended reading
Demand for tests could again exceed supply given the spike in the southern US.
If demand continues to accelerate and shortages are not resolved, then turnaround times for test results will rise, tests will effectively be rationed, and the number of infections that are never counted in official statistics will grow. Any plan to contain the virus will depend on fast and accurate testing, which can identify newly infectious people before they set off new outbreaks. Without it, the U.S. is in the dark.
A Dire Warning From COVID-19 Test Providers. The Atlantic, 30 June 2020.
On CNN last night, I heard you mention that not wearing a mask is like failing to stop at a red light. Can you elaborate on that?
A leading infectious disease expert explains how to be as safe as possible on this very different Fourth. The Conversation, 02 July 2020.
🎦 Recommended viewing
Hilary Godwin, dean of the University of Washington School of Public Health and professor in the Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, talks about using face coverings, including what kinds of masks are appropriate to wear and how they protect people.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19; 4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources
⓵ Around the country
❌ Second installment of COVIDiots is from Alabama. In Tuscaloosa, the seventh-largest city in Alabama and home to The University of Alabama, students are holding COVID-19 parties to see who can get sick first. Reportedly, other students who have tested positive are invited, even though the state does have a 14-day quarantine order.
🏥 Would this make you feel safe enough to fly? (Walgreen’s, SC)
🍷 Irony alert in northern California.
⓶ Around the world
🦘In Melbourne and Victoria, Australia, more than 10,000 have refused to take COVID-19 tests. Some claim it’s a global conspiracy. The US doesn’t have a monopoly on conspiracy theories.
🇲🇽 Now it’s Mexico that’s looking for border protection.
The leading health official in the state of Sonora, Mexico, has asked the federal government to temporarily close the border to non-essential visits from the US, in response to a spike in virus cases reported in Arizona.
⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19
Bloomberg analyzed mentions of climate change and related terms across all companies of the S&P 500 that held earnings calls for the first calendar quarter of 2019 through the first quarter of 2020. Companies were considered to have discussed climate change if they spoke about at least one of the search terms during the calls. Discussions about the accelerating climate crisis dropped for every industry in the S&P 500.
CEOs Drop Climate Change Talk to Focus on Surviving Covid-19. Bloomberg Green, 01 July 2020.
⓸ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. There is also a lag in reports of cases and deaths making their way into daily results; this lag is visible in predictable declines for both reports containing weekend data.
🌎 02 July
Globally: 10 533 779 cases (176 102 new) with 512 842 deaths (4 787 new)
The Americas: 5 317 792 cases (99 202 new) with 252 340 deaths (3 022 new)
US: 2 616 949 cases (43 556 new) with 127 133 deaths (560 new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 10,871,362 (10,694,288)
Total deaths: 521,298 (516,210)
Recovered: 5,754,013 (5,480,394)
🇺🇸 02 July
CDC: 2,679,230 (54,357) cases and 128,024 (725) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 2,739,879 (2,686,480) cases and 128,740 (128,062) deaths
State data*: 2,728,115 (2,675,215) identified cases and 121,492 (121,028) deaths
Why WI data do not match state website; KS reports only M-W-F; no change, IL, OHTotal tests (US, Johns Hopkins): 33,462,181 (32,827,359)
Take with a grain of salt. Tests not necessarily people. The CDC and at least 11 other states have combined the data for active infections with data for antibodies, boosting total number of tests which can drop the percentage who test positive.
📣 View weekly state infographics
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
⓹ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Wear a mask when near non-family members.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)