COVID-19 day 157: 📈 2,422,310 cases; 124,410 deaths : 25 June 2020
US sets another record for daily reported cases; nine states report more than 1,000 cases; Texas Gov. Abbott's May prediction about rising cases has come true; how COVID-19 spread across the US
It’s day 157 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. We set another record for daily reported cases today. How did we get here?
As of 14 June, 91% of the US population lived in one of 2,132 counties where the known rate of COVID-19 was at least 100 cases per 100,000 people, according to the Brookings Institution, which calls these “high-prevalence” counties. But the path that the virus took to become within arm’s reach of 9-in-10 of us wasn’t straightforward, as this map illustrates.
Those few dark, purple-like spots are the early centers, which includes military facilities for people who were abroad or on cruise ships. Blue is mostly April; green is mostly May; and yellow is late May to 14 June. The grey areas do not meet the 100/100,000 threshold.
The four-week period between April 27 and May 24 saw greater COVID-19 spread into the South and West, dipping into some smaller areas in all regions and extending into Texas, Virginia, and other parts of the interior South. By then, 83% of the nation resided in the nearly 1,700 high-prevalence counties.
Early high-prevalence counties were heavily Democratic (62% to 34%) based on 2016 presidential election results. Residents of the new high-prevalence counties were equally heavily Republican (58% to 36%).
In addition, the early politicization of the pandemic by the president and other public officials (which suggested that “red” parts of America need not be concerned with excessive protections) is looking like bad advice—and could become political fodder for their electoral opponents in November, should the virus continue to spread.
🦠 Thursday, Johns Hopkins reported 2,422,310 (2,381,361) cases and 124,410 (121,979) deaths, an increase of 1.72% (1.46%) and 1.99% (0.62%), respectively, since Wednesday (Tuesday).* A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.37% and 0.57%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 32,378 (30,454) cases and 837 (627) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 5.14% (5.12%).
Today’s case rate is 731.81 per 100,000; the death rate, 37.59 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 661.94 per 100,000; the death rate, 35.78 per 100,000.
*New Jersey reported an additional 1,854 suspected deaths today, elevating the total
Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.
🤓 Recommended reading
“People are tired and they just want this to be over,” said Dr. Chris Farnitano, Contra Costa County’s health officer. “The problem is the virus hasn’t changed; the only thing that’s changed is people’s behavior.”
As COVID Cases Spike, California Shifts Its Strategy. KHN, 25 June 2020.
The Netherlands is one of the world's top exporters of mink fur for coats and trim. The outbreak was first reported on two of its approximately 125 farms and has now been found in at least 17…hundreds of thousands of animals are being gassed to ensure that they do not become reservoirs for the virus. Because of the outbreak, the Netherlands has decided to shut down all of its mink farms by the end of the year.
Dutch Minks Contract COVID-19. NPR, 25 June 2020.
From 7 p.m. to 7 a.m., they see patient after patient stricken by the same terrible and perplexing disease, constricted by the same limited options for treatment. With doctors available by phone but not present, they rely more on each other. They are the lifeline for worried family members; and when a patient is dying, they’re the only ones allowed in the room.
Night Shift. San Antonio Express-News, 12 June 2020.
🔬 Research and medical news
CDC analysis shows pregnant women in U.S. with coronavirus more likely to have severe symptoms. The Globe and Mail, 25 June 2020.
🎦 Recommended viewing
Mr. Bean has joined COVID19 PSA-land.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19; 4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources
⓵ Around the country
The nine states reporting more than 1,000 cases today, along with per capita data:
5,996, Texas (455/100,000)
5,349, California (495)
5,004, Florida (531)
3,056, Arizona (866)
1,714, Georgia (670)
1,142, Alabama (677)
1,125, South Carolina (564)
1,092, Mississippi (824)
1,009, North Carolina (545)
☆ As Texas stumbles under rising cases and hospitalization rates, it’s worth noting that in a phone call with state legislators Gov. Greg Abbott acknowledged in May that re-opening would lead to a rise in cases.
“… the fact of the matter is, pretty much every scientific and medical report shows that whenever you have a reopening... that it actually will lead to an increase in spread,” Abbott says in the recording. “The goal never has been to get COVID-19 transmission down to zero.”
As Texas finishes a second week of record hospitalizations, some local officials are eyeing convention centers and stadiums as potential overflow facilities, reviving efforts tabled earlier in the pandemic.
New York and Seattle had to make plans like these because COVID-19 appeared to burst on the scene, in large part due to the limited testing allows by the White House. Texas as no such excuse. That was March; this is June.
So today Gov. Abbott renewed a call for wearing masks, washing hands regularly and “socially distancing from others.”
⓶ Around the world
Whether or not a long-term care (LTC) home became the center of country’s deaths varies widely by country. For example, the percentage of LTC residents who died from COVID-19 varied from 4% in Slovenia to 83% in Norway.
Perhaps that early tragedy in Kirkland, WA had a bigger impact on US response than it seems, based upon this chart of LTC deaths as a percentage of all COVID-19 deaths. Canada’s LTC system is characterized by older seniors and fewer nursing staff, according to a Canadian Institute for Health Information report.
⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19
🍺 This cannot be a surprise to anyone. Can it?
Public health authorities have identified bars as the locus of outbreaks in Louisiana, Florida, Wyoming and Idaho. Last weekend, the Texas alcohol licensing board suspended the liquor licenses of 17 bars after undercover agents observed crowds flouting emergency rules that required patrons to keep a safe distance from one another and limit tavern occupancy.
⛱ In April, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a stay-at-home order and exempted professional wrestling as an “essential” business. WWE broadcasts from Orlando. Now they’re having to do more testing in light of folks testing positive. This cannot be a surprise, either. Can it?
After a developmental talent tested positive for the coronavirus last week, WWE delayed tapings in order to ensure all of its talents, employees and production staff got tested. Wrestlers and staff were reportedly informed over the weekend of an additional confirmed cases in the company and advised to get retested with at least three and as many as two dozen ultimately testing positive for coronavirus, according to Pro Wrestling Sheet's Ryan Satin and the Wrestling Observer Newsletter's Dave Meltzer.
President Donald Trump will not abide by a new travel advisory in New Jersey requiring a quarantine period for visitors from coronavirus hotspots when he visits his Bedminster golf club this weekend.
⓸ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. There is also a lag in reports of cases and deaths making their way into daily results; this lag is visible in predictable declines for both reports containing weekend data.
🌎 25 June
Globally: 9 296 202 cases (167 056 new) with 479 133 deaths (5 336 new)
The Americas: 4 604 134 cases (97 128 new) with 230 165 deaths (3 661 new)
US: 2 329 463 cases (34 191 new) with 120 955 deaths (784 new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 9,609,829 (9,430,384)
Total deaths: 489,318 (482,805)
Recovered: 4,838,921 (4,746,836)
🇺🇸 25 June
CDC: 2,374,282 (37,667) cases and 121,809 (692) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 2,422,310 (2,381,361) cases and 124,410 (121,979) deaths
State data*: 2,411,400 (2,369,434) identified cases and 118,036 (115,536) deaths
KS reports only M-W-F; NJ added 1,854 suspected deaths to the datasetTotal tests (US, Johns Hopkins): 29,207,820 (28,567,355)
Take with a grain of salt. Tests not necessarily people. The CDC and at least 11 other states have combined the data for active infections with data for antibodies, boosting total number of tests which can drop the percentage who test positive.
📣 View weekly state infographics
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
⓹ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Wear a mask when near non-family members.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news(at WiredPen)