COVID-19 day 154: 📈 2,312,302 cases; 120,402 deaths : 22 June 2020
Globally, cases pass 9 million; more questions about Abbott rapid test; NIH halts hydroxychloroquine trial; 13 states have not expanded access to telemedicine during the pandemic, including FL, GA, SC
It’s day 154 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. Global cases now exceed 9 million.
Ten countries account for 65% of the cases; there have been more than 472,000 deaths.
From 17 April (Day 88) to 23 May (Day 124), it took 12 days to add 1 million cases.
We went from 6 million to 7 million in eight days.
We went from 7 million to 8 million in six days.
We went from 8 million to 9 million in seven days.
Given that the World Health Organization reported its greatest number of new cases on Sunday, it is unlikely that the disease is slowing.
Which test is your provider (or employer) using?
There are more than 100 COVID-19 diagnostic tests; the Abbott ID Now test is a “rapid” point-of-care diagnostic test that promises results in less than 15 minutes.
In May, researchers at New York University reported that the Abbott test missed up to 48% of positive results (false negatives). In April, researchers at the Cleveland Clinic reported in April that the Abbott ID Now had a false-negative rate of 14.8%, meaning of 100 people tested, 15 would be told they were not infected when in fact they were. Abbott has disputed the study results.
Kaiser Health News reported Sunday that users had reported 106 false-negative or otherwise incorrect results to the FDA. There are no reports complaining about competitor rapid tests.
[I]n a move that confounded lab officials and other public health experts, a senior FDA official later that month said coronavirus tests provided outside lab settings would be considered useful in fighting the pandemic even if they miss 1 in 5 positive cases — a worrisome failure rate….
In its own COVID-19 testing policy for labs and commercial manufacturers, the FDA says a diagnostic test should correctly identify at least 95% of positive samples….
“There’s no way I would be comfortable missing 2 out of 10 patients,” said Susan Whittier, director of clinical microbiology at NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Medical Center. Whittier and co-authors found that the Abbott test correctly identified 74% of positive samples compared with a rival test from Roche, another diagnostics giant. A point-of-care test from Cepheid, a rival company, correctly identified 99% of positives…
Abbott has already made several revisions to its materials for how its test should be performed. It removed prior language in its instructions saying swabs could be placed in a type of liquid — known as viral transport medium — before the test is run because doing so caused patient specimens to be too diluted. Now, the company says only direct swabs from patients should be inserted into the machine. It also revised its instructions for handling patient specimens following a KHN story in which lab professionals voiced safety concerns…
To date, Abbott has delivered more than 3.6 million of the rapid tests to customers in all 50 states, including urgent care clinics, physicians’ offices, the federal government and hospital emergency departments.
🦠 Monday, Johns Hopkins reported 2,312,302 (2,280,912 (2,255,119) cases and 120,402 (119,719) deaths, an increase of 1.38% (1.14%) and 0.36% (0.21%), respectively, since Sunday (Saturday). A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 0.95% and 0.34%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 27,279 (25,793) cases and 584 (567) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 5.21% (5.26%).
Today’s case rate is 698.57 per 100,000; the death rate, 36.37 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 638.67 per 100,000; the death rate, 35.8 per 100,000.
Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.
🤓 Recommended reading
“The emergency and chaos of the pandemic has triggered longstanding male networks, with a lot of ad hoc, quick linking of men to decision makers.”
Coronavirus Coverage and the Silencing of Female Expertise. Undark, 22 June 2020.“If you decide to get tested, the availability of test sites varies widely by region. Most community health centers now offer testing, as do large urgent care centers and a growing number of CVS and Walgreens pharmacies.”
Easy To Say ‘Get Tested.’ Harder To Do. Here’s How. Kaiser Health News, 22 June 2020.“The way to tell whether a rise in cases is indicative of increased spread in the population — rather than a byproduct of conducting more tests — is by seeing how many tests are identifying infections.”
No, more testing doesn’t explain the rise of covid-19 cases in the U.S. Washington Post, 22 June 2020.
🔬 Research and medical news
The UK research-reported-via-news release last week (rather than a paper) about dexamethasone helping the very ill (not a vaccine, not a treatment for mild cases) is now online as a preprint. This is why papers are important:
According to research from the UK published online in Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, COVID-19 patients who exhibit high levels of the steroid hormone cortisol when admitted to a hospital have a substantially increased risk of dying.
“Having an early indicator of which patients may deteriorate more quickly will help us with providing the best level of care as quickly as possible. In addition, we can also take cortisol levels into account when we are working out how best to treat our patients,” he said.
However, it's important to note that this means — particularly in the wake of the RECOVERY trial reported last week — that “in the early part of the disease you don't need steroids,” he told Medscape Medical News.
COVID-19: Cortisol Levels on Admission Can Help Predict Severity. Medscape News, 22 June 2020.
The National Institutes of Health announced on Saturday that it had stopped a “clinical trial to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of adults hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).” This was the fourth time the data and safety monitoring board had analyzed the trial.
NIH halts clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine. NIH news release, 20 June 2020.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19; 4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources
⓵ Around the country
☆ Texas now reports 11 consecutive days of record-high hospitalizations.
❌ Although I should not be, I am stunned that every state has not widely adopted telemedicine as a tool to cope with the pandemic.
The Kaiser Family Foundation documents how states have expanded access to “telehealth” services: 38 have acted and 13 have done nothing. Review the detailed chart to learn about your state.
⓶ Around the world
More on Sweden. Words not needed.
⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19
China has halted imports from Tyson Foods. The Guardian blurb: China halts imports from food plant where 481 tested positive.
⓸ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. There is also a lag in reports of cases and deaths making their way into daily results; this lag is visible in predictable declines for both reports containing weekend data.
🌎 22 June
Globally: 8 860 331 cases (152 323 new) with 465 740 deaths (4 025 new)
The Americas: 4 370 519 cases (90 665 new) with 221 771 deaths (2 627 new)
US: 2 241 178 cases (32 349 new) with 119 453 deaths (558 new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 9,098,643 (8,953,598)
Total deaths: 472,171 (468,346)
Recovered: 4,526,333 (4,434,641)
🇺🇸 22 June
CDC: 2,275,645 (27,616) cases and 119,923 (308) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 2,312,302 (2,280,912 ) cases and 120,402 (119,719) deaths
State data*: 2,297,760 (2,241,990) identified cases and 114,034 (113,452) deaths
MS, first update since 17 June (1,646 new cases, 40 new deaths)Total tests (US, Johns Hopkins): 27,553,581 (27,084,900)
Take with a grain of salt. Tests not necessarily people. The CDC and at least 11 other states have combined the data for active infections with data for antibodies, boosting total number of tests which can drop the percentage who test positive.
📣 View weekly state infographics
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
⓹ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Wear a mask when near non-family members.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news(at WiredPen)