COVID-19 day 139 : 📈 1,942,363 cases; 110,514 deaths : 07 June 2020

Week in review; New Zealand has no active cases; CDC survey suggests too many Americans took Trump literally regarding bleach; cases increasing in AZ, FL, NC, NM, SC, TX, WA (not exclusive list)

It’s day 139 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States.  Although most of us have been living on pause for months, in the past two weeks a great many of us (around the world) have decided that calling attention to racial injustice in the United States is worth taking a risk and congregating outside.

Today marks the 13th consecutive day of protests across the US.

Last weekend saw demonstrators in Amsterdam, Berlin and London; Rio de Janerio and Buenos Aires; Auckland and Sydney; and Nigeria and Kenya protesting police brutality in the United States, choosing to risk exposure to COVID-19 in the cause of justice.

📆This past week…

Last week's COVID-19 political news:

✅ Dana Smith wrote a meticulously researched essay which suggests that SARS-CoV-2 is a “vasculotropic virus,” one that attacks blood vessels. Then this week, we learned that people with Type A blood may have elevated risk from respiratory complications.

‼️ On Thursday, the Lancet retracted a study that linked hydroxychloroquine to higher mortality and heart problems in COVID-19 patients due to questions about its data. A different hydroxychloroquine study from the University of Minnesota showed that the drug does not prevent infection in people who have been exposed.

❌ “As we say in Tennessee, 'That dog won't hunt' — it didn't work,” said William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Schaffner, who was not involved in the trial, praised it as "rigorously done."

❌ An anti-corruption watchdog group is calling on the Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) to investigate top executives at the biotech company Moderna for allegedly manipulating the stock market and possible insider trading.

📣 Missed last week, the 30 May 2020 cover story of The Economist magazine (accessible with email signup, five free articles/month).

The official death rate in America is about the same as in the European Union—which also has excess deaths, but has less erratic leaders and universal health care. Overall, America has fared a bit worse than Switzerland and a bit better than the Netherlands, neither of which is a failed state.

It continues to be difficult to focus on COVID-19 because of the death of George Floyd.

Week in review on WiredPen (31 May - 06 June 2020).
Also see, around the country in charts (31 May).

🦠SundayJohns Hopkins reported 1,942,363 (1,920,061) cases and 110,514 (109,802) deaths , an increase of 1.16% (1.2%) and 0.65% (0.61%), respectively, since Saturday (Friday). A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 2.53% and 1.53%, respectively.

  • The seven-day average: 21,525 (21,755) cases and 1,264 (1,296) deaths 

  • Percent of cases leading to death: 5.69 (5.72%).

  • Today’s case rate is 586.81 per 100,000; the death rate, 33.39 per 100,000.

  • One week ago, the case rate was 540.83 per 100,000; the death rate, 31.53 per 100,000.

Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.

🤓 Recommended reading

Don’t let the title dissuade you from checking out this approachable-to-the-math-shy reader. It references this older, detailed essay from the UK (which has excellent infographics).

In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, we were desperate to have a test — any test — to help sort out which patients with symptoms were infected with the coronavirus. Three months later, we face an entirely different problem: there is a bevy of tests — some for the virus, others for antibodies to the virus — and interpreting them has become increasingly confusing, to patients and clinicians alike.

With more testing and various versions of the two different types of tests, the confusion isn’t surprising. Last month’s “Can I fly?” or “Can I touch the mail?” questions have increasingly been replaced with questions like this: “My daughter tested positive, then negative, then…. What does that mean?”

Interpreting Covid-19 Test Results: A Bayesian Approach. Medium, 06 June 2020.

Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19;
4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources

⓵ Around the country in charts

This is a Sunday feature; see large versions of the charts on WiredPen.

As you can see from the following charts, very few states display a downward trend in daily case numbers (per capita, logarithmic).

Many states have begun showing an upward movement in cases in this past week, the result of expanded contact due to opening of businesses as well as Memorial Day weekend gatherings. Within two weeks, there will probably be another bump due to the protests surrounding the George Floyd murder.

States should have 14 days of downward trending case numbers before allowing more freedom for people to gather. This recommendation has been ignored. The charts also provide support for a STAT News op-ed from 02 June: Optimism, not evidence, is driving America’s return-to-work strategy.

Individual states, weekly totals and daily average

By posting data for each week, these charts attempt minimize the daily fluctuations that result from the reporting process. Daily reports are not real time data; however, the lag is unknown and probably differs by state. All but one here are trending up.

⓶ Around the world

⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19

🆘 You cannot make this stuff up. The CDC conducted a survey (small numbers, not for projections) “after a spike in calls to poison centers about exposures to cleaners and disinfectants during the pandemic.”

Mass arrests of non-violent protesters — hours in vans, cells and other enclosed spaces — increases the risk of infection from COVID-19, as does aggressive tactics like tear gas and pepper spray. So does the controversial practice of “kettling.”

Most have ultimately been released with a summons — leading to demands that police refrain from detaining people when they could give a ticket instead.

⓸ Case count

There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. There is also a lag in reports of cases and deaths making their way into daily results; this lag is visible in predictable declines for both reports containing weekend data.

🌎 07 June 

WHO Situation report, 139

  • Globally: 6 799 713 cases (136 409 new) with 397 388 deaths (4 586 new)

  • The Americas: 3 234 875 cases (79 505 new) with 179 394 deaths (3 227 new)

  • US: 1 886 794 cases (28 922 new) with 109 038 deaths (1 127 new)

Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)

  • Global confirmed: 7,007,948 (6,897,225) 

  • Total deaths: 402,709 (399,789)

  • Recovered: 3,140,721 (3,087,381)

🇺🇸 07 June 

  • CDC: 1,920,904 (29,214) cases and 109,901 (709) deaths

  • Johns Hopkins*: 1,942,363 (1,920,061) cases and 110,514 (109,802) deaths

  • State data*1,936,185 (1,916,525) identified cases and 104,403 (103,954) deaths 

  • Total tested (US, Johns Hopkins): 20,235,678 (19,778,873)
    Take with a grain of salt. The CDC and at least 11 other states have begun combining the number of tests for active infections with the number of antibody tests, which boosts the total number of tests and thus drops the percentage who test positive.

View infographic and data online: total cases and cases and deaths/100,000.

* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands

The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a seafood (“wet”) market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.

⓹ What you can do

Resources

👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
📊 Visualizations: US, World
🌐 Global news (at WiredPen)
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