COVID-19 day 137 : 📈 1,897,838 cases; 109,143 deaths : 05 June 2020
This is a "just the numbers" edition, case study: Florida
It’s day 137 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. Florida’s case load began to increase after 01 May. The state began “re-opening” on 04 May.
Contrary to a headline and assertion from Newsweek, the largest per-day report for the state of Florida was 1,575 on 03 April. Here we are with 1,419 on 04 June, two months later. The fact that these numbers are so close, after two months, is the story of poorly contained community spread.
The sharp increase in (average) daily cases this past week (incomplete without Saturday’s data) reflects infections which occurred around the Memorial Day weekend (based on a 7-14 day incubation to symptom cycle).
In addition, many patients worsen after day 5-10 after symptoms appear, suggesting they might be more likely to seek medical treatment. That might push these dates-of-actual infection into the “flat zone” of the early May.
The pattern of peaks in reported cases in Florida (Thursday and Friday) suggests there is an external factor in play, which could be related to number of test centers being open, the hours that test centers are open, or lags in summaries and reports to the state. The Miami Herald:
Florida reports new COVID-19 cases based on the date when the health department receives test results. But how many results the department receives each day — from state labs and private ones — varies because some labs report within one to two days of processing a test while others can take a week or longer to deliver an answer…
[Mary Jo Trepka an infectious disease epidemiologist with Florida International University’s Stempel College of Public Health] said fluctuations in reporting test results, and the fact that the health department reports cases based on the date it receives test results as opposed to the date of symptom onset, make it difficult for epidemiologists to measure the effect of policy changes, such as Friday’s Phase 2 reopening of bars and movie theaters outside of South Florida.
Nevertheless, since 01 May (a Friday) the state has trended upward in number of cases each week. And June 3-4-5 data represent a change in pattern: there has only been one instance of back-to-back “highs” in case reports. That was April 3-4, early in the virus outbreak.
You can see a similar pattern in reported deaths.
Note that the Florida Keys re-opened on Monday 01 June. Since 22 March, the Keys have been closed to nonresidents who don’t work or own property in the county.
Palm Beach County is planning to allow some summer camps to use school facilities.
The most cases are in the most populous counties:
🦠Friday, Johns Hopkins reported 1,897,838 (1,872,660) cases and 109,143 (108,211) deaths, an increase of 1.32% (1.14%) and 0.85% (0.97%), respectively, since Thursday (Wednesday). A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.41% and 1.17%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 21,953 (21,686) cases and 1,361 (1,396) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 5.75% (5.78%).
Today’s case rate is 573.22 per 100,000; the death rate, 32.97 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 527.49 per 100,000; the death rate, 31.06 per 100,000.
Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Case count; 2, What you can do and resources
⓵ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. There is also a lag in reports of cases and deaths making their way into daily results; this lag is visible in predictable declines for both in weekend reports.
🌎 05 June
Globally: 6 535 354 cases (118 526 new) with 387 155 deaths (4 288 new)
The Americas: 3 084 517 cases (61 693 new) with 172 276 deaths (3 723 new)
US: 1 837 803 cases (14 583 new) with 106 876 deaths (825 new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 6,740,361 (6,639,092)
Total deaths: 394,984 (391,249)
Recovered: 2,748,553 (2,872,731)
🇺🇸 05 June
CDC: 1,862,656 (20,555) cases and 108,064 (1,035) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 1,897,838 (1,872,660) cases and 109,143 (108,211) deaths
State data*: 1,892,832 (1,872,660) identified cases and 103,201 (102,101) deaths
Total tested (US, Johns Hopkins): 19,231,444 (18,680,529)
Take with a grain of salt. The CDC and at least 11 other states have begun combining the number of tests for active infections with the number of antibody tests, which boosts the total number of tests and thus drops the percentage who test positive.
View infographic and data online: total cases and cases and deaths/100,000.
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a seafood (“wet”) market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
⓶ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s COVID-19 Memo :: COVID-19 Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
🌐 Global news
📊 Visualizations: US, World