COVID-19 day 122 : 📈 1,577,287 cases; 94,702 deaths : 21 May 2020

FEMA cancels National Guard troops deployment at 89 days; FDA stops Seattle COVID-19 testing project; NZ Prime Minister has 92% approval; US cases at day 80 are down only 28% from peak

May 22, 2020

It’s day 122 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. Welcome to a “disinformation” edition.

Trust in science affects behavior.

Only 1-in-6 Americans rely on the White House for COVID-19 news but they are the Americans most likely to think that the risk is exaggerated, according to a new survey from the Pew Research Center. More Democrats than Republicans trust scientists; and only half of Republicans think physical distancing helps control the virus.

[T]hose who rely most closely on the White House for coronavirus news make up 16% of all U.S. adults. The group is almost entirely Republican or Republican-leaning (92% of this group, accounting for 32% of all Republicans), overwhelmingly non-Hispanic white (82%), and older than the public overall. Indeed, of all five news sources analyzed, those relying on the task force include the largest percentage of adults 65 and older (39%).

I discovered the Pew survey (nothing there is surprising if you’ve followed American partisanship very long) because I went looking for polling data after stumbling on a pull-his-hair-out essay by Ezra Klein, Why are liberals more afraid of the coronavirus than conservatives?

Klein focused on the “threat versus novelty” psychological model to develop his thesis. But his thesis is flawed for at least two reasons. First, he tried to deduce motivation by observing behavior. (Not even a Vulcan mind meld!) Thus in his world view, given that liberals are novelty-seeking, they must be “afraid” if they are advocating physical distancing and stay-at-home policies.

I was offended. No, I was annoyed. THIS >

“The fact that liberals are taking the scientific evidence and medical recommendations seriously does not, in itself, mean that they are more threat sensitive than conservatives,” [John Jost, New York University] wrote over email. “All of the liberals I know have been self-sequestering to ‘flatten the curve’ — to save other people’s lives.”

Second, Klein failed to consider the fervent loyalty of die-hard Trump loyalists, those identified in the Pew study.

“In some ways, this pandemic was tailor-built for right-wing xenophobia, and we are fortunate (thus far, at least) that Trump’s response was to downplay it solely to keep the stock market from tanking completely,” said Jost.

Unfortunately, that focus on “the other” is coming. Trump’s grandstanding earlier this week (tweeting a letter to the World Health Organization, his petulance about wearing a mask at the Ford factory). Republican Party talking points (a 53-page memo) for November elections, designed to “tie Democratic candidates to the Chinese government.”

Be prepared with facts illustrated with story (more people are persuaded by story than facts).

🦠Thursday, Johns Hopkins reported 1,577,287 (1,551,853) cases and 94,702 (93,439) deaths in the US, an increase of 1.64% and 1.35%, respectively, since Wednesday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 1.95% and 2.10%, respectively.

The seven-day average: 22,771 (23,015) cases and 1,257 (1,329) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 6.0% (6.02%).
Today’s case rate is 476.52 per 100,000; the death rate, 28.61 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 428.36 per 100,000; the death rate, 25.95 per 100,000.

Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.

Please take a moment and answer this short reader survey! ✅

🤓 Recommended reading

The pandemic underlines—again—the growing problems in our information ecosystem, this time in a field where falsehood can be (literally) lethal. It is acting as a lens that brings into focus one of the most urgent challenges of our times. We (most of us) will survive the virus, but it is far from clear that democracies can survive the longer-term destabilisation of objective truth. If we want a world where major events can be discussed and debated on a basis of agreed and reliable facts, then we have no choice but to grapple with the epidemiology of misinformation.

The epidemiology of misinformation. Prospect Magazine, 19 May 2020.

Truth Decay is the term RAND uses to identify “the diminishing role of facts, data, and analysis in political and civil discourse and the policymaking process.”

Truth Decay is characterized by four trends: increasing disagreement about facts and data, blurring of the line between opinion and fact, increasing relative volume of opinion compared to fact, and declining trust in institutions that used to be looked to as authoritative sources of factual information.

Truth Decay. An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life. Jennifer Kavanagh and Michael D. Rich. Rand Corporation, 2018. Download the eBook (free).

🔬 Research and medical news

The “something” he and his colleagues saw is how SARS-CoV-2 blocks one virus-fighting set of genes but allows another set to launch, a pattern never seen with other viruses. Influenza and the original SARS virus (in the early 2000s), for instance, interfere with both arms of the body’s immune response — what tenOever dubs “call to arms” genes and “call for reinforcement” genes.
… they found that within three days of infection, the virus induces cells’ call-for-reinforcement genes to produce cytokines. But it blocks their call-to-arms genes — the interferons that dampen the virus’ replication.

‘It’s something I have never seen’: How the Covid-19 virus hijacks cells. STATNews, 21 May 2020.

🎦 Recommended viewing

‼️Clearly, I run in the wrong Twitter circles. This is my first Sarah Cooper lip sync.

Wajahat "Social Distance Yourself" Ali @WajahatAli

I have seen this over 10 times. I even tweeted it earlier. But, this is Trump. He actually said this. Sarah didn't even have to edit it. She's brilliant at what she does and what she does is magnify his idiocy.

Sarah Cooper @sarahcpr

I tested very positively https://t.co/lp4fE2bbai

Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19;
4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources

⓵ Around the country

❌ Only 19% of Americans who have tested positive for COVID-19 appear in Johns Hopkins data as “recovered.” Globally, 38% are reported as “recovered.”

⛱ Presented without comment.

❌ This does not blow my mind, perhaps because I look at these data daily. It makes me sad. It makes me mad. Does it blow your mind?

Jeremy TEST/TRACE/ISOLATE Konyndyk @JeremyKonyndyk

Been playing around with FT's data for an article I'm working on. This stat blew my mind. Italy and Spain had among worst outbreaks in Europe. But by day 80, Italy was down 80% from peak, Spain was down 93%. US (top line in chart) at same point is down only 28% from peak.

⓶ Around the world

⛱ All across western Europe, countries and municipalities are closing beaches because people are failing to maintain physical distancing.

✅ More visionary words from New Zealand.

“I hear lots of people suggesting we should have a four-day workweek. Ultimately that really sits between employers and employees. But as I’ve said there’s just so much we’ve learnt about Covid and that flexibility of people working from home, the productivity that can be driven out of that.” New Zealand’s prime minister Jacinda Ardern

Ardern was speaking from Rotorua, a tourist magnet, using Facebook Live. “Ardern said many New Zealanders said they would travel more domestically if they had more flexibility in their working lives.”

According to Reuters, Ardern is New Zealand’s “most popular prime minister in a century.” She has a 92% approval rating.

⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19

❌ Nature dives in to the US Food and Drug Administration decision to shut down the COVID-19 testing project in Seattle-King County that has the backing of the Gates Foundation. The project, which kicked off in March, involved sending self-test kits with nasal swabs to homes in the area in order to get samples from a broad population.

But the Seattle program does not test for antibodies and has wide backing, including from public health leaders, the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Mr. Gates, whose foundation has been deeply involved in fighting the pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also provided an in-person technical adviser to the project.

The Seattle Flu Project has been in the crosshairs since February, when it identified the first case of COVID-19 community spread.

❌ The US government has told more than 40,000 National Guard troops who have been supporting states during the COVID-19 crisis that their deployments will end on 24 June, a “hard stop.” This is one day short of a 90-day deployment, which affects retirement and education benefits, according to Politico.

“Intentionally ending orders one day short of a deadline for National Guard soldiers to receive benefits for their heroic sacrifices is the definition of heartless,” Rep. Max Rose (D-NY) a recipient of the Bronze Star and Purple Heart for his service in Afghanistan with the 1st Armored Division, told Military.com.