COVID-19 day 113 : 📈 1,369,964 cases; 82,387 deaths : 12 May 2020
Russia jumps to number two in global cases, Brazil also makes big jump; Cal State system to continue online classes this fall; years of life lost to COVID-19 is more than a decade
It’s day 113 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. In total number of cases (not per capita), Russia has vaulted into the number two spot behind the United States (9th and 3rd largest countries by population, respectively).
In addition, as in the US, a high ranking press secretary has tested positive: Dmitry Peskov, press secretary for President Vladimir Putin.
In the southern hemisphere, Brazil (6th largest country) is reporting the most cases.
However, the picture changes when we look at per capita data. There have been very few headlines in the United States focused on Belgium, which has suffered COVID-19 to a greater extent than Italy, on a reported per capita basis.
Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases.
🦠Tuesday, Johns Hopkins reported 1,369,964 (1,347,916) cases and 82,387 (80,684) deaths in the US, an increase of 1.64% and 2.11%, respectively, since Monday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 2.02% and 3.11%, respectively.
The seven-day average: 22,048 (18,117) cases and 1,616 (1,679) deaths
Percent of cases leading to death: 6.01% (5.99%).
Today’s case rate is 413.88 per 100,000; the death rate, 24.89 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 363.89 per 100,000; the death rate, 21.47 per 100,000.
Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.
🤓 Recommended reading
11 questions about the coronavirus we still can’t answer. VOX, 12 May 2020.
Analysis: We Knew The Coronavirus Was Coming, Yet We Failed 5 Critical Tests. KHN Health News, 11 May 2020.
As Deaths Mount, Coronavirus Testing Remains Wildly Inconsistent In Long-Term Care. KHN Health News, 12 May 2020.
Southwest CEO’s Boast About Airplanes’ Low COVID Risk Flies By Key Concerns. KHN Health News, 11 May 2020.
🔬 Research and medical news
“Clearly, there has been a school of thought that individuals that succumbed to COVID-19 are already seriously ill with minimal years of life left to live. This quantitative assessment clears up that misconception showing that years of life lost is over a decade…This finding holds even after adjusting for underlying chronic conditions.” Dr. David McAllister, senior clinical lecturer,University of Glasgow Institute of Health and Wellbeing
People with coronavirus are dying 10 years earlier than they would have naturally. Good Morning America, 10 May 2020.
Research paper. COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study [version 1; awaiting peer review]. Wellcome Open Research, 23 April 2020.
🎦 Recommended viewing
Full committee hearing: COVID-19: Safely Getting Back to Work and Back to School, 12 May 2020. U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions.
📣 REMINDER: Set your DVRs for Wednesday 13 May (or watch online) for the one hour documentary on PBS Nova, Decoding COVID-19.
Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19;
4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources
⓵ Around the country
Echoing Anthony Fauci’s comments about classes opening in the fall, the California State University system will continue to hold most classes online in the fall.
Keeping classes online is necessary because of “evolving data surrounding the progression” of the virus, [Chancellor Tim] White said during a CSU trustee meeting, alluding to public health experts forecasting further waves of the virus later this year.
Also echoing Fauci’s comments about children, the NY Times examines new pediatric research from China.
⓶ Around the world
The “walk-in” testing booth is only one of the many tools that South Korea deployed in its early and aggressive response to SARS-CoV-2, legacy from its experience with the MERS coronavirus outbreak in 2015.
The nation of 51 million people has also taken a big data approach to contact tracing, using credit card history and location data from cell phone carriers to retrace the movements of infected people. Surveys show most Korean citizens are OK with sacrificing digital privacy to stop an outbreak. At the same time, authorities have pushed an intense—but mostly voluntary—social distancing campaign, leaving most bars, restaurants, and movie theaters free to operate.
After an outbreak this weekend related to several nightclubs, the country is again relentlessly tracing and quarantining. National Geographic reviews the the how-and-why of South Korea’s success so far. Can their process serve as a model elsewhere?
⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19
On Tuesday, Fauci testified before the Senate virtually alongside CDC director Robert Redfield, FDA commissioner Stephan Hahn, and testing coordinator Adm. Brett Giroir. Fauci testified that the coronavirus death toll is “almost certainly higher” than the official count.
In an exchange with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Fauci reiterated the importance of paced reductions in physical distancing (aka “opening” the economy) as well as testing and contact tracing:
A key but missing-in-action criterion among most states that have started re-opening: a two-week downward trajectory in daily case numbers.
The guidelines released by the president — titled, “Opening Up America Again” — urge states not to lift stay-at-home or travel restrictions until they reach a 14-day period in which the number of coronavirus cases is steadily declining, hospitals are not overwhelmed and robust testing is in place for health care workers and others.
This is what an overloaded health care system looks like: people die, unnecessarily.
Recap: 6 takeaways from the Senate’s surreal virtual hearing on the U.S. coronavirus response. STAT News, 12 May 2020.
“There’s this mindset that it's like running a show and you've got to keep people tuned in, you’ve got to keep them interested and at some point you've got to move on and move on quickly,” said a former senior official at the Health and Human Services Department. “Viewers will get tired of another season of coronavirus.”
⓸ Case count
There is a lag between being contagious and showing symptoms, between having a test and getting its results. The virus was not created in a lab and the weight of evidence is it was not released intentionally. Although early reports tied the outbreak to a seafood (“wet”) market in Wuhan, China, analyses of genomic data in January suggested that the virus might have developed elsewhere.
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🌎 12 May
Globally: 4 088 848 cases (82 591 - new) with 283 153 deaths (4 261 - new)
The Americas: 1 743 717 cases (41 266 - new) with 104 549 deaths (2 675 - new)
Johns Hopkins interactive dashboard (11.00 pm Pacific)
Global confirmed: 4,262,799 (4,177,687 - yesterday)
Total deaths: 291,981 (286,336 - yesterday)
Recovered: 1,493,661 (1,456,318 - yesterday)
🇺🇸 12 May
CDC: 1,342,594 (1,324,488) cases and 80,820 (79,756) deaths
Johns Hopkins*: 1,369,964 (1,347,916) cases and 82,387 (80,684) deaths
State data*: 1,360,705 (1,340,412) identified cases and 76,617 (75,107) deaths
Total tested (US, Johns Hopkins): 9,637,930 (9,382,235)
View infographic and data online: total cases and cases and deaths/100,000.
* Johns Hopkins data, ~11.00 pm Pacific.
State data include DC, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
⓹ What you can do
Stay home as much as possible, period.
Digestive problems may be a symptom.
Resources
👓 See COVID-19 resource collection at WiredPen.
📝 Subscribe to Kathy’s Daily Memo :: Daily Memo archives
🦠 COVID-19 @ WiredPen.com
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