COVID-19 day 111 : 📈 1,329,799 cases; 79,528 deaths : 10 May 2020

Vice President Pence reportedly will not self-quarantine after his press secretary's positive diagnosis; UK passes Italy in total cases; what AK, HI, MT and VT have in common (hint, check the map)

May 11, 2020

It’s day 111 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. We’ll cross the 80,000 death threshold Monday.

It’s clear from this infographic that very few states have contained the virus during phase one: Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, Vermont. New York is well-positioned, as is Arkansas. Those of us on the west coast … not so much. Washington and Oregon are rebounding; California zig-zagging upwards.

And this is what the country looks like. That little downward weekend dip today: fewer people collecting test samples and fewer people (possibly) working the labs. The graphic suggests a slowing of known infections but we are no where near the point where we stop infecting people. Today we added almost 25,000.

🦠Sunday, Johns Hopkins reported 1,329,799 (1,309,541) cases and 79,528 (78,794) deaths in the US, an increase of 1.55% and 0.93%, respectively, since Saturday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 2.20% and 1.95%, respectively.

The seven-day average: 24,537 (25,210) cases and 1,692 (1,773) deaths.
Percent of cases leading to death: 5.98% (6.02%).
Today’s case rate is 401.75 per 100,000; the death rate, 24.03 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 349.86 per 100,000; the death rate, 20.45 per 100,000.

Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.

🤓 Recommended reading

👏🏻 Who knew that the NY Times wrote long, after-the-fact (“overlooked”) obits? I stumbled on this one today.

In 1966, she used a powerful electron microscope to capture an image of a mysterious pathogen — the first coronavirus known to cause human disease.

Overlooked No More: June Almeida, Scientist Who Identified the First Coronavirus. NY Times, 08 May 2020.

Also, She discovered coronaviruses decades ago—but got little recognition. National Geographic, 17 April 2020. (free registration)

‼️ If you’re interested in knowing more about the four men whose early efforts helped dig the COVID-19 hole we are in, look no further than this (long) Rolling Stone profile.

I did not know, for example, that Dr. Robert Redfield, the head of the CDC, had been an HIV researcher. He wrote an introduction to the 1990 book, Christians in the Age of AIDS, “calling for the rejection of ‘false prophets who preach the quick-fix strategies of condoms and free needles’.”

His 2018 nomination was a triumph for the Christian right, a coup in particular for evangelical activists Shepherd and Anita Smith, who have been instrumental in driving a global AIDS strategy centered on abstinence.

The Four Men Responsible For America’s COVID-19 Test Disaster. Rolling Stone, June 2020 issue.

🦠 We’ve all been wondering, when will this end? The answer isn’t simple.

[P]andemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes.

How Pandemics End. New York Times, 10 May 2020.

👀

While it was enough of a spectacle to draw attention from quizzical joggers, dog walkers and eventually Seattle Center security (who did not intervene), anyone standing across the street might not have even realized a silent guerrilla rap show was underway, as there was no amplified music. Instead, the beats and Simone’s gravelly vocals were piped directly into wireless headphones distributed to fans before showtime.

Seattle rapper Raz Simone threw a pop-up, drive-in concert at a Seattle Center parking lot. Here’s how it went. Seattle Times. 10 May 2020.

🔬 Research and medical news

Use terms correctly! (Headline writers and journalists may not.)

In Quarantine - someone who is potentially infected due to exposure who has separated themselves from others while waiting to see if they are infected

In Isolation - someone who is sick who has separated themselves from others to prevent the spread of the infection to those who are not sick

🎦 Recommended viewing

Sarah Holt’s team produced the one hour documentary for PBS Nova, Decoding COVID-19, in six weeks. Using Skype interviews. Julia Cort, co-executive producer for Nova:

This is obviously affecting everyone, and science is at the center of it. There is a lot of confusion. This special helps clarify the complexities of science.

Set your DVRs for Wednesday 13 May (or watch online). You’ll learn what effective contact tracing looks like and experience cell phone tracking in Wuhan. How scientists think the virus attacks the body. What’s involved in creating a vaccine.

😎 Brighten your day

This aged well!

Merlin Mann @hotdogsladies

My gut is that most conspiracy theorists have never been project managers. Their optimism is adorable.

Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19;
4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources

Please take a moment and answer this short reader survey! ✅

⓵ Around the country

❌ The White House hot spot.

Face The Nation @FaceTheNation

WATCH: "It is scary to go to work," @WhiteHouse Economic adviser Kevin Hassett tells @margbrennan. This week a White House staffer and an aide to @VP Pence tested positive for #coronavirus cbsn.ws/2WDI9SS See more of Hassett's interview on @FaceTheNation at 10:30 EST

Even though his press secretary has tested positive for COVID-19, Vice President Mike Pence plans to be in the office on Monday. He was en route to Iowa on Friday when he learned that Katie Miller had the infection. Anthony Fauci as well as FDA and CDC chiefs are in quarantine due to their exposure to Miller.

Caroline Orr @RVAwonk

Pictured below (on the right) is Katie Miller -- Mike Pence's press secretary who just tested positive for #COVID19 -- at the healthcare facility where Pence delivered masks yesterday. Note that Miller is the only one *not* wearing a mask.

And yet, in a roundtable discussion with food industry leaders in Des Moines, the five men invited to the discussion arrived wearing masks. But they were asked to remove them before Pence entered the room. It’s on video (live streamed).

❌ New Jersey. Half of New Jersey’s Covid-19 fatalities are linked to nursing homes, almost 5,000. As of Sunday, 15 nursing homes had each reported 30 or more deaths. The New Jersey Veterans Home at Paramus is the home to one of the biggest coronavirus outbreaks in the country.

✅ New York. Testing is expanding (slightly) and the rate of positive tests is dropping. Physical distancing is working but it came at a huge cost: 1-in-137 New Yorkers aged 45-64 has been hospitalized for coronavirus.

Scott Gottlieb, MD @ScottGottliebMD

In New York State, covid19 testing continues to expand while the overall positivity rate continues to fall.

⓶ Around the world

The United Kingdom has passed Italy in total number of cases (220,449 and 219,070, respectively). However, the UK has a larger population than Italy; thus its per capita rate is lower (324.73 and 362.18 per 100,000, respectively).

The UK ranks first in Europe in total number of deaths (31,930) not per capita (47.03 per 100,000). They follow Spain and Italy (56.94 and 50.52 per 100,000, respectively).

The Straits Times @STcom

Japan may end state of emergency this week for regions with stable coronavirus cases

straitstimes.comJapan may end state of emergency this week for regions with stable coronavirus casesTOKYO (REUTERS) - The Japanese government will consider lifting the state of emergency on many of the 34 prefectures that are not among the hardest-hit by the coronavirus epidemic before the nationwide deadline of May 31, Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said.. Read more at straitstimes.com.

South Korea has managed its outbreak through testing, contact tracing and quarantine. There has been no lockdown. That practice is being stressed this week after an outbreak “in a cluster of cases linked to nightclubs and bars in the densely populated capital city of Seoul.”

Don’t let the emotionally charged Reuters headline rev you up. We will be playing whack-a-mole with COVID-19 until there is a vaccine or until we have herd immunity through infection. And maybe longer if the immunity has a short lifespan.

RNZ @radionz

#BREAKING New Zealand's Cabinet has agreed to move to Level 2. Many businesses will resume from this Thursday, schools will open to all children from next Monday and bars can reopen from 21 May. #COVID19

rnz.co.nzCovid-19: PM Jacinda Ardern reveals staggered move to alert level 2Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced a staggered move into level 2 starting on Thursday, with schools and bars reopening later and groups limited to 10 people.

⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19

The White House is now forecasting ~20% unemployment with the next report.

CNN Politics @CNNPolitics

“Just looking at the flow of initial claims that it looks like we’re probably going to get close to 20% in the next report,” senior White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett says about US unemployment #CNNSOTU

Meanwhile, tweeting as the country collapses…

Donald Trump sent more than 100 tweets and retweets on Sunday, most of which promoted unsubstantiated claims about the investigation into collusion between his campaign and Russia.

Care to check for yourself?