COVID-19 day 109 : 📈 1,283,929 cases; 77,180 deaths : 08 May 2020

40 years ago today we marked the eradication of smallpox, a testament to global cooperation; current employment rate worst since the Great Depression; White House as virus hot spot?

May 09, 2020

It’s day 109 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that GDP could decrease by 40% in the second quarter.

In seven weeks, unemployment claims have exceeded 33 million, equivalent to about 10% of the total US population. For April, the 14.7% unemployment rate is the worst since the Great Depression. Charts like these (above and below) are hard for the brain to process; it wants to turn that spike into a border. How do we stop one horrible month from becoming a 10-year depression?

Today, 08 May 2020, marks the 40th anniversary of the Declaration of Smallpox Eradication. The disease had haunted humans for at least 3,000 years. Smallpox claimed on average about 4 million deaths each year during the first half of the 20th century. It was eradicated through concerted global cooperation, led by the World Health Organization.

It is now the only human disease to have been eradicated worldwide…
The 40th anniversary of the eradication of smallpox is also significant for immunization. The eradication of smallpox laid the foundation for immunization programmes worldwide, underpinning the establishment of primary healthcare in many countries. Today, vaccine hesitancy is on the rise and may yet derail the global response to COVID-19 if communication countermeasures are not in place. Vaccines work, and vaccination continues to save up to 3 million lives every year from polio, measles and other infectious and chronic diseases, beyond the millions of deaths averted thanks to the discovery and adoption of the smallpox vaccine.

🦠Friday, Johns Hopkins reported 1,283,929 (1,256,972) cases and 77,180 (75,670) deaths in the US, an increase of 2.15% and 2.00%, respectively, since Thursday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 4.16% and 3.97%, respectively.

The seven-day average: 25,735 (26,735) cases and 1,730 (1,807) deaths
That case rate is 387.89 per 100,000; the death rate, 23.32 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 323.21 per 100,000; the death rate, 19.04 per 100,000.

Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.

🤓 Recommended reading

There’s a list of coronavirus symptoms that many can now recite from memory. And then there’s how it actually feels when you have it.

‘An Anvil Sitting on My Chest’: What It’s Like to Have Covid-19. NY Times, 07 May.

ON 19 MARCH, I SUDDENLY HAD A HIGH FEVER and a stabbing headache. My skull and hair felt very painful, which was bizarre. I didn’t have a cough at the time, but still, my first reflex was: I have it…
I read a scientific study yesterday that concluded you have a 30% chance of dying if you end up in a British hospital with COVID-19. That’s about the same overall mortality rate as for Ebola in 2014 in West Africa. That makes you lose your scientific level-headedness at times, and you surrender to emotional reflections…
Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control.

Virologist Peter Piot was one of the people who discovered the Ebola virus in 1976 and is a coronavirus adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19. Science Magazine, 08 May 2020.

🔬 Research and medical news

An observational study published in the New England Journal of Medicine analyzed data for 1,400 patients who had treated for COVID-19 at a large hospital in New York City from 07 March to 08 April. More than half were treated with hydroxychloroquine.

…the risk of intubation or death was not significantly higher or lower among patients who received the drug than among those who did not… when the researchers adjusted for the fact that hydroxychloroquine patients were sicker, and also accounted for factors such as age, race, body-mass index, and comorbidities, they found no significant association [with intubation or death].

🎦 Recommended viewing

I’ve not dropped in on John Oliver lately. Alex Jones, what? 👀

Oliver produces a spot-on dissection of testing (first swabs, then test kits, then an excellent overview of antibody tests) starting at about the 12 minute mark.

Just because something is probably true (antibodies protect against coronavirus) doesn’t mean you can automatically assume that it is.

💃🏼 Life hack

Get a daily email report with COVID-19 infection and death data for any state; it also includes testing and hospitalization information if that is available. From COVIDPing. This is today’s report for Washington state.

Mark your calendars: Saturday 16 May. We’re having a national high school graduation day for the Class of 2020. Former President Barack Obama will deliver the commencement address. The hour-long event will also feature Ben Platt, H.E.R., LeBron James, Lena Waithe, Malala Yousafzai, Megan Rapinoe, Pharrell Williams, The Jonas Brothers and Yara Shahidi. The event is 8-9 pm, Eastern, and will be broadcast (ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC) and digicast (eg, Facebook and Instagram).

😎 Brighten your day

Wizarding World @wizardingworld

Surprise! We've got a treat for you…From today, amazing friends of the Wizarding World are going to take turns reading Harry Potter book one. And to start us off with Chapter 1, we think you’ll agree we have the perfect narrator...⚡️ #HarryPotterAtHome wizarding.world/6006178ae

Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19;
4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources

⓵ Around the country

✅ Contact tracing plans: 44 states and the District of Columbia currently plan to hire 66,197 workers according to NPR. This is a doubling the reported numbers in 10 days.

✅❌ On Tuesday, federal judge John Mendez ruled that California Governor Gavin Newsom could legally ban church services in a public health emergency. On Thursday, 10 Oregon churches sued Governor Kate Brown’s similar order.

❌ The most troubling story Friday centers on the District of Columbia, where the White House is on the verge of becoming a hot spot.

There are regularly large events with unmasked attendees in close quarters — including inside the Oval Office, where some people have been allowed to enter without wearing masks or taking tests for the virus.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued its recommendation that we wear face coverings (in addition to physical distancing) on 03 April.

There are 11 active cases of COVID-19 in the Secret Service; 60 employees who are self-quarantining; and 23 who have recovered from COVID-19.
Testing positive Wednesday: one of Trump’s valets, a member of the US Navy. Valets “sometimes serve meals and look after personal needs of the president.”
Testing positive Friday: Katie Miller, the vice president’s press secretary and the wife of Trump’s senior advisor for policy, Stephen Miller (cronyism for another day). Word salad:
"This is why the whole concept of tests aren't necessarily great," the president continued. "The tests are perfect, but something can happen between a test where it's good and then something happens and all of the sudden. She was tested very recently and tested negative, and then today I guess for some reason she tested positive. So Mike knows about it and Mike has done what he has to do. I think he is on an airplane, going to some far away place, but you'll be able to ask him later on. But they've taken all of the necessary precautions. I understand Mike has been tested, vice president, and he tested negative."
Vice President Pence was flying to Iowa Friday morning.
The flight was delayed, and six staffers were removed from Air Force Two because they had been in contact with Miller recently.
According to several news reports, FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn will self-quarantine for 14 days because of recent contact with Miller. So should everyone who has had contact, as well as anyone who has had close contact (within six feet) of her husband.

The president and vice president are reportedly tested daily. That’s fine, I suppose, for their health. But it does nothing to protect the health of those around them should either of them become infected, since masks are not the norm. Transmission doesn’t wait until the proverbial rabbit dies.

In March, several people at Trump club in Florida, Mar-a-Lago, were diagnosed with COVID-19, as was a different staffer in Pence’s office.

⓶ Around the world

✅ India has begun repatriating citizens stranded around the world. Nearly 15,000 are expected to return on special flights from 12 countries over the next week; all will be quarantined for at least 14 days. Eventually, about 200,000 Indians will be allowed to return according to news reports. They have to buy their own tickets.

🆘 Cases in Russia are growing rapidly. Russia (187,859 cases, 129 per 100,000) is in fifth place, behind the US, Spain, Italy and the UK. About half of the tested positives are in Moscow.

Brazil now ranks eighth (behind France and Germany. Friday had 146,894 cases (69 per 100,000) and 10,017 deaths (4.72 per 100,000). Health officials are recommending Rio be locked down.

⛪️ In Italy, churches have been open only for private prayer. Mass is slated to resume on 18 May after officials and Catholic bishops reached an agreement. Physical distancing and safety measures must be practiced. But will people venture out of their homes?

‼️ Greece is opening is ancient sites to visitors, beginning 18 May. Museums will open in mid-June. The country has a low case rate of 31 per 100,000.

⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19

Thursday, the Associated Press reported that the CDC had prepared a 17-page guidance report which provided specific guidelines for reopening cities and businesses, a report that had been shelved by the White House. The report had been described in earlier AP stories.

According to “a task force official” the report had not been “cleared by CDC leadership.” That was a lie, as AP reported today.

The decision to shelve detailed advice from the nation’s top disease control experts for reopening communities during the coronavirus pandemic came from the highest levels of the White House, according to internal government emails…
… after the AP reported Thursday that the guidance document had been buried, the Trump administration ordered key parts of it to be fast-tracked for approval.
The trove of emails show the nation’s top public health experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spending weeks working on guidance to help the country deal with a public health emergency, only to see their work quashed by political appointees with little explanation.

After AP reported on Thursday that the recommendations “had been buried, the Trump administration ordered key parts of it to be fast-tracked for approval.”

As many reports have noted, traditional the CDC takes the lead role in providing guidance for the public and local governments during a public health crises. That has not been the Trump playbook. Read the entire AP investigation.