COVID-19 day 108 : 📈 1,256,972 cases; 75,670 deaths : 07 May 2020

Distribution of remdesivir to hospitals lacks transparency; what activities are safe now that states are relaxing rules; COVID-19 and universal basic income; misinfo goes "viral" (Plandemic)

May 08, 2020

It’s day 108 since the first case of coronavirus disease was announced in the United States. We’ve crossed another milestone: 75,000 deaths.

And we are still not testing enough.

Of these three states above, only one is approaching the end of phase one: Louisiana. And it’s not there: its decline has plateaued. Today, 253 new cases, 93 new deaths. You gotta get to zero, like South Korea. And even then, it’s not “over.”

Iowa is just getting started (steep rise) and may or may not have peaked. Texas appears to have peaked (barely) a second time but has no real downward trajectory. I predict neither Iowa nor Texas will dip downward for a while. Physical distancing is required for that to happen.

The tool, developed at Stanford, lets you explore any state as well as global data.

Testing is essential to determine actual infection numbers; to anticipate impact on the health care system of a town, city or county; and to make assessments about when to loosen physical restriction regulations. Neither states nor countries test equally well.

Our World In Data provides extensive information about testing and why it’s essential.

🦠Thursday, Johns Hopkins reported 1,256,972 (1,228,603) cases and 75,670 (73,431) deaths in the US, an increase of 2.31% and 3.05%, respectively, since Wednesday. A week ago, the daily numbers increased by 2.88% and 3.37%, respectively.

The seven-day average: 26,735 (26,956) cases and 1,807 (1,781) deaths
That case rate is 379.75 per 100,000; the death rate, 22.86 per 100,000.
One week ago, the case rate was 323.21 per 100,000; the death rate, 190.39 per 100,000.

Note: numbers in (.) are from the prior day and are provided for context. I include the seven-day average because dailies vary so much in the course of a week, particularly over a weekend.

🤓 Recommended reading

In a city besieged, undocumented New Yorkers have been left outside public measures to help those impacted by the spread of the coronavirus. Instead, they weigh impossible choices: medical help and exposure, safety or sustenance.

Los New Yorkers: Essential and Underprotected in the Pandemic’s Epicenter. Pro Publica, 02 May 2020.

🔬 Research and medical news

✅ WHO has developed criteria for controlled human infection studies “to ensure that such research is conducted to the highest ethical standards.”

✅ The FDA recently approved the experimental drug remdesivir for emergency use to treat COVID-19. The Trump administration is distributing limited quantities of the drug to hospitals. How hospitals are being selected is … unknown.

About two dozen hospitals are believed to have been chosen to receive the drug so far, but clinicians told STAT it is unclear why some medical centers were chosen to receive coveted doses while others weren’t — and who is making those decisions in the first place….
Earlier instances of unapproved drugs being authorized for emergency use have been very different, said Michael Ison, an infectious disease physician at Northwestern Medicine. During the H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009, he explained, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention created a website as soon as the FDA authorized emergency use for peramivir, so that hospitals could apply for the medicine.
Not so for remdesivir. “Currently there is no way anywhere I’ve seen to figure out how this is being distributed or how they’re making decisions about this,” Ison said.

A professor of medicine at the University of California San Francisco has shared a snapshot of the grapevine. Tracking at Tableau.

Peter Chin-Hong MD @PCH_SF

So we have all been holding our breath. Hoping to get #remdesvir #EUA for #COVID19 via #US government #supplychain after #Gilead donation. By this AM, only 25 hospitals approved (red). All the blue dots (eg @UCSF) have been refused so far. Crossing fingers & waiting 🤞

🎦 Recommended viewing

“… [Facebook and Twitter and YouTube] reward hostility…”

MSNBC @MSNBC

.@oneunderscore__ says “there’s no real way to stop” the spread of disinformation and conspiracy theories amid the coronavirus pandemic because “Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube … reward engagement and they reward hostility.”

on.msnbc.comCoronavirus conspiracy theories are ravaging ERs, and doctors are fed upNBC News reporter Ben Collins joins Chris Hayes to discuss the devastating effect that COVID-19 disinformation has on hospitals across the country.

💃🏼 Life hack

McKay Coppins @mckaycoppins

As businesses reopen, what everyday activities are safe? @jpinsk consulted several experts for this guide to living safely in the next phase of the pandemic. I found this very helpful:

theatlantic.comA Guide to Staying Safe as States ReopenCan I eat at a restaurant? Can I go shopping? Can I hug my friends again? Experts weigh in.

😎 Brighten your day

Phil Torres @phil_torres

Alright this hummingbird is just a stunner. Set my iPhone + @moment lens on top of feeder and look who showed up. How is this animal real!?

❌ 🏥 ✅ 🆘 📣 🧰 ⬆️ ▪️ ‼️ 🦠🥓 🥩 🍔 🍺 🍷 🍽 🗽 ⛱ 👏🏻

Sections (no jump links, sorry!)
1, Around the country; 2, Around the world; 3, Politics, economics and COVID-19;
4, Case count; 5, What you can do and resources

Please take a moment and answer this short reader survey! ✅

⓵ Around the country

❌ You’ve probably encountered Plandemic by now. I tried to listen to it Wednesday afternoon but couldn’t get past 4-5 minutes. Little did I know it would become a sensation that YouTube, Facebook and Twitter would be removing.

David Gorski, a surgical oncologist, writes about science and disinformation. He can turn a phrase (but rambles quite a bit):

The movie boldly paddles up the river of pseudoscience and deeper into tinfoil hat conspiracy territory…

For more straightforward reporting (read words not listen to video):

Ben Collins @oneunderscore__

New from me + @BrandyZadrozny: As '#Plandemic' goes viral, those targeted by discredited scientist's warn of 'dangerous' claims

nbcnews.comAs ‘#Plandemic’ goes viral, those targeted by discredited scientist’s crusade warn of ‘dangerous’ claimsInitially pushed by anti-vaccination disinformation peddlers, the video was then promoted by minor celebrities.

For an almost a line-by-line refutation of the claims in the 26-minute video, there’s Reddit. Demonstrating the best of crowdsourced collaboration.

❌ Major news media have finally grabbed on to the meat packing plant story.

Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson

⚠️Meatpacking worker Rafael Benjamin was ordered NOT to wear a mask b/c it was "creating unnecessary fears." Days later, he got seriously ill with #COVID19 and then died. ~5,000 workers–1% of its workforce–have been sickened by #coronavirus; 20 DIED.😰 bloomberg.com/news/features/…

bloomberg.comBloomberg - Are you a robot?

⓶ Around the world

The UK is holding its own leading total COVID-19 deaths in Europe. However, Belgium (73), Spain (56) and Italy (50) lead Britain (44) in per capita deaths (x/100,000).

Testing per capita data range widely. For example, South Korea and Vietnam have each succeeded in containing the virus, at least in this first phase, with much less testing than either the US and the UK.

Vietnam had a total of 288 cases as of Thursday. No deaths. Population is approximately one-third of the United States. And they knew about the virus the same time we did. They just took if far more seriously.

They tested sooner, traced contacts, quarantined. The urgency to test a greater percentage of their population was missing.

Chart: OneWorldData.

⓷ Politics, economics and COVID-19

I’ve been in the ‘automation will reduce jobs’ and ‘China and India will reduce domestic jobs (because, numbers + cheaper) that can be performed remotely’ camps for a long time.

But COVID-19 will alter that trajectory for the indefinite future. Retail jobs - whether at coffee shops, restaurants or department stores (Nordstrom announced closures Wednesday) - will continue to shrink. There will be additional push towards automation to reduce “factory lines.” How long before tourism recovers?

In the EU, where tourism accounts for some 4% of gdp, the number of people travelling by plane fell from 5m to 50,000; on April 19th less than 5% of hotel rooms in Italy and Spain were occupied…
[Data] suggest that if Americans chose to avoid person-to-person proximity of the length of an arm or less, occupations worth approximately 10% of national output would become unviable…
Discretionary spending by Chinese consumers—the sort that goes on things economists do not see as essentials—is 40% off its level a year ago.

It’s only been recently that universal basic income and universal basic services have knocked on the main stream discussion door; this disease should rapidly accelerate thought and discussion.