29 August 2021 ⚡️ When calamities collide: war, climate change, COVID-19

Mississippi passed New Jersey this week to hold the dubious title of "state with the worst COVID-19 death rate"

Aug 30, 2021

From 15 August to 28 August 2021, about 117,000 people were evacuated from Kabul, most of them Afghans. That’s an average of more than 8,000 people a day. For comparison, the total evacuated from Saigon was 7,000. According to the State Department, about 350 Americans have indicated that they plan to remain in Afghanistan. Heather Cox Richardson has the best news summary for Wednesday’s suicide bombing.

The western United States is burning. On Wednesday, parts of California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Wyoming were under air quality alerts; 92 large wildfires have torched more than 2.5 million acres.

Officials ordered more evacuations in the Tahoe Basin area on Sunday, as fires moved closer to Lake Tahoe. Large portions of the Pacific Crest Trail are closed due to fire. Even San Diego residents are being evacuated because of wildfires.

Due to climate change, fire season is longer and fires, hotter. NPR reported in July that the “nine largest wildfire seasons since reliable records begin have occurred since 2005.” Adding to the mix: recent research suggests that air pollution “worsens COVID-19 symptoms and outcomes.”

Due to climate change, hurricanes are more powerful (wind speed), dump more rain and generate more storm surge. Researchers have found that since 1975, the percentage of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has significantly increased.

Thus climate change is breaking out “of the neat little silo it’s been placed in and running smack into every other crisis.” Climate change is a threat multiplier.

Moreover, we have “no national standards for evacuating and caring for inmates—jail or prison—in times of inclement, or extreme, weather.”

About Hurricane Ida

The storm with insufficient warning:

On Thursday morning it was a tropical depression with 35 mph winds.
On Friday night, Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds.
On Saturday afternoon, Category 2 with 100 mph winds.
Sunday early morning, Category 3 with 115 mph winds.
Sunday, two hours later, Category 4 with 130 mph winds

Going from non-existent to a near-Category-5 landfall in 72 hrs is something no hurricane has ever done before in the Atlantic. We're working in uncharted territory.

Hurricane Ida demonstrated unusual rapid deepening (strengthening) just before landfall late Sunday morning near Port Fourchon, LA. Sustained wind of 150 mph was just short of Category 5 hurricane minimum wind speed, 157 mph. Sunday is the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, which killed more than 1,800 in 2005.

New Orleans went dark Sunday, with the only power in the city - including hospitals which could not be evacuated - being provided by generators. Of concern: the potential for super-spreader environments as people seek shelter, whether in neighborhoods, nearby cities or adjacent states.

Number one on the NOLA list of “prepare for hurricane season”: get vaccinated.

City residents responded; almost 80% of adults have at least one shot.

Oil firms have evacuated half of the manned offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and halted about 90% of US Gulf of Mexico crude oil production (1.65 million barrels per day). The Gulf represents 17% of US crude oil production. Gas prices will “likely rise by about 10 cents a gallon in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic markets.”

FEMA has already shipped more than 3.5 million meals, 2.5 million liters of water, 139,000 tarps, and more than 185 generators to affected areas. The Louisiana National Guard is activated, joined by more than 3,500 additional National Guard members.

FEMA is also helping with COVID-19 vaccine distribution and is providing aid for fires in Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah and Washington.

The Pentagon is helping with earthquake relief in Haiti, evacuating Afghanistan, and partnering with FEMA on Hurricane Ida.

mike luckovich @mluckovichajc

🤓 Recommended reading

ABC News rocked by sexual assault accusations in lawsuit. LA Times, 26 August 2021.
Anti-parasite drug used on Arkansas jail inmates for COVID. AP, 25 August 2021.
Covid-19 vaccines flirted with perfection at first. Reality is more complicated. STAT News, 25 August 2021.
Defense contractor Erik Prince charges $6,500 a person to evacuate Afghans. WSJ (no paywall), 25 August 2021.
Evacuations From Kabul Wind Down as U.S. Prepares to Pull Last Troops. NY Times, 29 August 2021.
Graphic body camera video kept secret for more than two years shows a Louisiana State Police trooper pummeling a Black motorist 18 times with a flashlight. AP, 25 August 2021.
Let’s Not Pretend That the Way We Withdrew From Afghanistan Was the Problem. Ezra Kline, NY Times, 26 August 2021.
Maggie Haberman and the never-ending Trump story. Washington Post, 26 August 2021.
New York state removes religious exemption from COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Becker’s Hospital Review, 27 August 2021.
Officer who shot Ashli Babbitt during Capitol riot breaks silence: 'I saved countless lives'. NBC News, 26 August 2021.
The Extreme Ingredients That Made the Tennessee Flood So Disastrous. The Weather Channel, 26 August 2021.
Vaccines can only do so much. The rest is up to people. Washington Post editorial board, 28 August 2021.
Vaccine mandates: Here are the companies requiring proof of inoculation from employees. Yahoo! Money, 24 August 2021.

💉 COVID-19 week in review

As the CDC tracker shows (below), the Gulf states which have been hit with the winds, rain, and storm surges associated with Hurricane Ida are among those with the worst current seven-day COVID-19 case rate and the lowest vaccination rates. In other words, they face not one but two crises of public health and safety. Concurrently.

It’s not just cases; it’s also deaths.

Louisiana and Mississippi rank numbers one and two in per capita death rates for the seven days ending 27 August 2021. Since the pandemic began, the only state with a worse per capita death rate than Mississippi is New Jersey, which was hit very early.

The forecast is 100,000 additional deaths nationally by year’s end: the key is behavior. “We can save 50,000 lives simply by wearing masks.”

In Texas, a US Army veteran died because he needed gallbladder surgery, and there were no beds.
In Oregon, an unvaccinated worker at an assisted living facility started an outbreak in July that infected 64 people and killed five.
In California, an unvaccinated elementary school teacher took her mask off in May to read aloud to students. She infected half of her class of 24 as well as students in other classes, siblings and parents; some were fully vaccinated. This was Delta and it was May.
Hawaii, as an island state, weathered 2020 better than most states. But no longer.
Florida and Texas are not authorized for bamlanivimab and etesevimab monoclonal antibody treatment because SARS-CoV-2 there is too resistant.

When an Australian farmer could not attend his aunt’s funeral due to being in lockdown, he created a ❤️ with his herd of sheep.

🏥 On Saturday 28 August, US hospitals were treating 95,600 coronavirus patients. In Oregon, hospitalizations have increased almost 10-fold since 09 July 2021. Flashback to 30 November 2020, when hospitalizations were rising rapidly (before the mid-January peak, 133,214). In November, there was no vaccine.

🪦 Deaths per day (seven-day average) reached 1,290 Sunday, up from 1,000 last Saturday (21 August 2021). Flashback to 18 November 2020, when deaths were rising rapidly before peaking in mid-January 2021 at 3,425. In November, there was no vaccine.